MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Cincinnati Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce3d62a969c9ab5cb82bd43b5dd9a55e2c3b7f883c885f63fa73b6605c398c10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $227,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $221,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdd1…e0bfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 94,181$59,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,812.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 30,042$12,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,447.5 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 29,353$13,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,176.4 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 25,203$9,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,827.28 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 16,560$7,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,228.65 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 11,593$5,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,224.6 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 11,352$4,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,344.2 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 10,601$4,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,724.36 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 6,575$2,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,594.15 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Seattle Mariners | 34c | 6,382$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,192.35 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0317…6289backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 5,461$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.5 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 4,000$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 3,400$1,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,884.89 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 2,500$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 2,019$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.97 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 1,552$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.92 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 1,396$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.15 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Seattle Mariners | 76c | 1,104$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.9 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 1,000$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.43 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Seattle Mariners | 49c | 922.58$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.62 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 655$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.7 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 600$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 497.15$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.49 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 467.25$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.21 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 375$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.25 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Cincinnati Reds | 6c | 244.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 165.47$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.55 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 112.2$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Seattle Mariners | 25c | 83.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 77.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf8…dfb0backed Cincinnati Reds | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 55.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Seattle Mariners | 32c | 38.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed Seattle Mariners | 79c | 31.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.