Tennis · resolved market
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcebce464ffd77d9ca2fdd0e4a1cd8537319212da410f01709636ae07ccdaee1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcaraz of Alcaraz , Sinner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Sinner | 57c | 5,795$3,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,280.13 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Alcaraz | 43c | 2,780$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.49 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Alcaraz | 43c | 2,319$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.68 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Sinner | 58c | 1,627$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.13 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…f0d4backed Alcaraz | 44c | 1,363$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.35 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…4036backed Sinner | 59c | 1,355$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Sinner | 37c | 1,265$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.03 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6b…29fdbacked Sinner | 60c | 1,171$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Alcaraz | 56c | 1,168$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.83 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Alcaraz | 41c | 999.99$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.99 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Alcaraz | 41c | 973.37$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.05 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Alcaraz | 40c | 851.19$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c1…0586backed Sinner | 52c | 800$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Alcaraz | 44c | 795.6$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.13 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…7c5abacked Alcaraz | 44c | 723.23$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Alcaraz | 42c | 719.6$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.37 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Sinner | 57c | 659.63$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.32 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…89acbacked Alcaraz | 43c | 626.88$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Alcaraz | 59c | 606$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.69 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Alcaraz | 39c | 452.69$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Sinner | 59c | 431.82$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.49 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Sinner | 57c | 360.84$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.68 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…756dbacked Alcaraz | 42c | 355.51$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.52 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…2aeebacked Sinner | 49c | 310$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…8284backed Alcaraz | 42c | 262.12$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.03 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Alcaraz | 43c | 249.21$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.05 | 296 | 61.5%182 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1421…644bbacked Alcaraz | 41c | 244.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.97 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…47a4backed Sinner | 15c | 242.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Alcaraz | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 178 | 67.4%120 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Alcaraz | 46c | 207.86$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc177…d0b8backed Sinner | 58c | 188.78$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Alcaraz | 40c | 186.63$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.28 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…1219backed Sinner | 51c | 183.07$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Sinner | 57c | 174.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…3201backed Sinner | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 189 | 57.7%109 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Sinner | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…6ce4backed Sinner | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Alcaraz | 42c | 166.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Alcaraz | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…e56bbacked Alcaraz | 42c | 145.24$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Sinner | 59c | 115.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Sinner | 46c | 108.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf558…8abfbacked Alcaraz | 67c | 97.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Sinner | 56c | 90.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Sinner | 25c | 90.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…8935backed Alcaraz | 59c | 80.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842e…074cbacked Sinner | 33c | 70.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Alcaraz | 41c | 66.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.29per pick | 36cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…0bc4backed Sinner | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Sinner | 58c | 63.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1b…8e20backed Alcaraz | 44c | 63.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf751…f148backed Sinner | 59c | 49.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Sinner | 56c | 47.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…a57dbacked Alcaraz | 43c | 47.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…31efbacked Alcaraz | 41c | 46.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Sinner | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4b…ac55backed Sinner | 69c | 41.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Alcaraz | 45c | 37.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Sinner | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Sinner | 65c | 29.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55a4…3658backed Alcaraz | 42c | 28.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…8ab2backed Sinner | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…cc0ebacked Sinner | 60c | 23.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dd…bbdebacked Sinner | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2e…c1c4backed Sinner | 58c | 19.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.