World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcee09588825a095be14898d44986779a556a2d81ee973aaaf9de12e10a833978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7205…3377backed No | 48c | 1,143$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed No | 52c | 869.38$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.3 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 50c | 737.34$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 676.19$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.75 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 53c | 448.79$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.08 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 350$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 257.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 34c | 257.48$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.54 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed No | 51c | 234.25$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed No | 57c | 214.4$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 54c | 189.29$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 51c | 188.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.54 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 182.76$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.09 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 54c | 177.05$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 48c | 176.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742a…fa07backed Yes | 49c | 176.02$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 155.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 56c | 125.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 41c | 124.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 48c | 122.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 118.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 49c | 118.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 117.3$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 53c | 115.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 44c | 111$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 109.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 55c | 108.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 104.34$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 46c | 100.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 55c | 90.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 49c | 90.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 55c | 89.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed No | 63c | 89.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 89.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6293…675fbacked Yes | 38c | 88.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 50c | 86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 84.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 51c | 80.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 29c | 79.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 50c | 79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 48c | 78.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 64c | 77.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed Yes | 48c | 75.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 50c | 74.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 70.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 69.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 59c | 66.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked No | 45c | 66.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 47c | 64.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…09b8backed No | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 62.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 49c | 59.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 59.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 47c | 58.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 57.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…6c4dbacked Yes | 52c | 57.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked No | 70c | 54.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 55c | 54.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…2b6fbacked No | 52c | 53.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 48c | 50.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 34c | 49.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +5.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 49.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 56c | 48.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 50c | 45.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 44.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 57c | 43.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 50c | 39.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 39.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 39.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 43c | 37.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 53c | 37.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x513f…8933backed Yes | 48c | 36.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 56c | 36.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 50c | 36.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd18a…3ae9backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed No | 58c | 34.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 50c | 34.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 51c | 33.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 32.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 55c | 32.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 51c | 32.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +179.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 68c | 30.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or below on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.