World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b23fb50a64ff53669b099d9098f0f31790fabd0e5b72497e787dd80e952092a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 34c | 1,555$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.58 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 826.23$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.17 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 36c | 506.47$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.63 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 66c | 367.35$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.31 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 276.4$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.57 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -22.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 34c | 244.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.96 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 236.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.88 | 467 | 37.5%175 W · 292 L | +28.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 227.23$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.07 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 199.62$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.54 | 245 | 60.4%148 W · 97 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 46c | 188.74$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.83 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 180.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 251 | 51.8%130 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 33c | 173.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 159.2$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 432 | 49.1%212 W · 220 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 37c | 158.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.38 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 70c | 145.78$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +6.1wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 41c | 144.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 144.17$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 80c | 143.08$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 10c | 139.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 36c | 138$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 137.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 894 | 48.3%432 W · 462 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 136.67$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.93 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 129.24$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 233 | 55.8%130 W · 103 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 40c | 126.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 13c | 125.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 43c | 124.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 162 | 54.9%89 W · 73 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 51c | 119.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 58c | 118.92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 167 | 51.5%86 W · 81 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 117.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.24 | 271 | 55.7%151 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 34c | 116.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 50c | 109.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 39c | 107.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 71c | 100.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 26c | 99.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.18 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 19c | 98.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.72 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 32c | 96.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 83.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 48c | 82.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 175 | 54.3%95 W · 80 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 48c | 82.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 81.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 459 | 29.2%134 W · 325 L | -69.3wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 81.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 208 | 63.9%133 W · 75 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 63c | 77.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 33c | 75.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 157 | 54.1%85 W · 72 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 70.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 28c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 68.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 188 | 56.9%107 W · 81 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 72c | 65.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 70c | 64.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 26c | 64.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 37c | 62.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 19c | 61.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 60.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 339 | 40.1%136 W · 203 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 49c | 57.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 155 | 46.5%72 W · 83 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 27c | 56.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 32c | 53.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 367 | 55.3%203 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 41c | 49.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 151 | 41.7%63 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 22c | 49.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 24c | 48.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 46.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 186 | 34.9%65 W · 121 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 46.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 335 | 54.9%184 W · 151 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 57c | 44.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 35c | 44.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 162 | 56.8%92 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 40c | 43.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 43.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 25c | 42.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes | 38c | 39.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 38c | 39.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 38c | 37.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 35c | 36.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 35cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 36.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa61…97dabacked Yes | 38c | 35.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 35.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 259 | 36.7%95 W · 164 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 296 | 58.8%174 W · 122 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 77c | 32.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 71c | 32.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 369 | 58%214 W · 155 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…78abbacked No | 67c | 30.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 74c | 29.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 62c | 26.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 74c | 23.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 52c | 23.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 58c | 22.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 67c | 22.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 75c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 228 | 55.3%126 W · 102 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or below on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.