MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcef53239ee39c749dbfd04a30abd17dbd0cc7cb481d3b3039da0b36258fa1134
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 16,879$7,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,180.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 16,465$9,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,055.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 1,895$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.87 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 1,280$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.17 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…1fbebacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.48 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 863$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.54 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 412$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.88 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 390.01$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.92 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 334.39$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.86 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 241.01$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.71 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 210.79$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.26 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 169.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 166.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 161.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.93 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 160$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 134.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Boston Red Sox | 51c | 120.94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 110$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 109.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ad…be98backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 90.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 87.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 86.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 86.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 78.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 70.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 47.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 42.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 39.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 33.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 32.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 32.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…22c9backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 32.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5564…345ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 26.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 14.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.