MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dcb820bd62140902999067ccac825612e7761cf25205fafe9460a5b93024338
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Under | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 7,244$3,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,718.51 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Over | 48c | 5,408$2,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,816.38 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 48c | 4,256$2,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,228.56 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 4,074$1,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 56c | 3,600$2,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 56c | 2,015$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.4 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 51c | 1,989$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.39 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 48c | 1,934$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.51 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 47c | 1,272$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.16 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 46c | 1,135$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.22 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 1,027$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.34 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 48c | 949$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.48 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6055…5fdebacked Under | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 869.59$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.09 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 48c | 786$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.37 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 50c | 777$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.5 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked Under | 57c | 700$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 49c | 679.7$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.65 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 55c | 643.17$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.74 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 46c | 526.39$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.1 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 49c | 499.98$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 46c | 497$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.05 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…8fd9backed Under | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…017dbacked Under | 51c | 431.94$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.29 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 49c | 398$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.98 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 48c | 381.41$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 48c | 326.02$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.27 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 51c | 285.32$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.51 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 48c | 276$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.52 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 64c | 244.91$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.38 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Over | 44c | 221$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.76 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 56c | 164$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.97 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 46c | 149.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 48c | 141.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 46c | 138$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 45c | 129.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 53c | 118.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 49c | 112.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 43c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 41c | 100.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 86.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 43c | 74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 48c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 56c | 71.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 53c | 68.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2da…ce6abacked Over | 46c | 54.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 57c | 53.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 45c | 44.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 47c | 34.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed Over | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 44c | 32.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 53c | 28.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd732…0fd0backed Over | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 50c | 20.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 14.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.