MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a730d3bb67b0400636ec95450716f37e445c7046c7127886f0ba5c972c23bc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x263c…b2aebacked Over | 54c | 9,684$5,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,456.71 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 6,214$2,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,818.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 52c | 5,113$2,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,454.22 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…89c3backed Under | 48c | 2,973$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.96 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 2,794$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.24 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 2,223$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.06 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 47c | 1,100$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Over | 58c | 933.42$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.42 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 48c | 798$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.04 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 46c | 745.52$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.05 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 54c | 627$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.79 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 46c | 611.41$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.25 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Over | 54c | 546.3$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.1 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 53c | 544$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.68 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 56c | 499.98$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.99 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 53c | 415.1$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.1 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Under | 44c | 370.23$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 305.49$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.5 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 54c | 237.04$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.04 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 44c | 216.66$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.17 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…7cffbacked Over | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 48c | 187.02$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.16 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 23c | 163.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 47c | 140.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 43c | 127.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 47c | 117.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 46c | 76.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 57c | 70.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 49c | 67.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 56c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,299 | 56.7%737 W · 562 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 64c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Under | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aae…7efcbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 35.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 43c | 33.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 54c | 27.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…c723backed Under | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 22.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 14.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.