MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f2dc3bfe33942347d745a55dea21b9f60a3f30cea0a4098ad626f817e13d79e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 44c | 4,550$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,547.99 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 56c | 2,541$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.3 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 56c | 2,345$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.03 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 43c | 1,830$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.64 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 56c | 1,172$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.94 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 43c | 1,106$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.92 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked No | 57c | 800$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 262 | 55.7%146 W · 116 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…5c65backed No | 56c | 696.48$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.03 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed No | 58c | 512.79$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.42 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 35c | 209.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Yes | 42c | 186$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.88 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe95…1a93backed Yes | 43c | 181.67$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.55 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Yes | 45c | 180$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 220 | 55.5%122 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a75…dd88backed Yes | 45c | 169.69$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 45c | 167$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.85 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 43c | 143$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 61c | 137.58$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.92 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Yes | 39c | 123.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked No | 57c | 122.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Yes | 37c | 111$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4ce0backed No | 58c | 96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 161 | 55.9%90 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Yes | 44c | 90.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed No | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 340 | 45%153 W · 187 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…f673backed No | 57c | 63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Yes | 43c | 62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 37c | 57.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked No | 52c | 51.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 48c | 43.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed No | 56c | 43.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff62…842bbacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…230cbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.1wins | +0.39per pick | 53cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Soxthis page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 14.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.