MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ed34c8f081b11a807819ab363fea2ce5130c9b7c232f7f3cdf5d164171d68ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 3,085$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.4 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 1,336$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.63 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0be…540abacked Under | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Over | 35c | 829.73$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.18 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 754.69$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.89 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 65c | 584.15$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.92 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Over | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 35c | 457.14$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.14 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 62c | 410.12$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 46c | 393.69$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.54 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 65c | 241.26$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.82 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 38c | 232.03$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.86 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…6b58backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Under | 66c | 168.18$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 35c | 157.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 141.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.04 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 59c | 136.79$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 59c | 135.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 41c | 123.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 65c | 104.4$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 51c | 103.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 43c | 97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 34c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 79c | 78.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 38c | 71.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 59c | 70.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 59c | 70.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 44c | 50.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 61c | 50.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 34c | 43.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 34c | 31.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 52c | 30.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 53c | 29.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 65c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…549dbacked Under | 57c | 22.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Under | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 14.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.