Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf2813f25929b239d14d2789eac13eb6af8f40485bf2941881a393a002c9af76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 71c | 745.53$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.53 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 360.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 351.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 8c | 257.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 5c | 255.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 23c | 210.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 189.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 175.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 23c | 168.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 78c | 160.11$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 45c | 158.71$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.65 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 78c | 157.8$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 56c | 128.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 119.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 47c | 117.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 75c | 115.07$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 21c | 113.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 15c | 109.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 43c | 107$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 66c | 106.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 104$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 28c | 97.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 93.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 51c | 91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 13c | 78.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 75.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 70.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 24c | 63.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 71c | 62.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 66c | 60.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb81…9b1bbacked Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 19c | 57.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 54c | 55.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 20c | 55.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 40c | 52.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 29c | 49.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 47.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed Yes | 46c | 44.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 31c | 43.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…80c0backed Yes | 77c | 43.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ff…b951backed Yes | 75c | 40.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 71c | 38.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 53c | 37.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 64c | 34.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 52c | 31.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x464b…8371backed No | 55c | 31.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c86…eb28backed No | 53c | 31.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 28.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3986…71fcbacked No | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f8…abc0backed Yes | 71c | 25.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 59c | 25.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…03bebacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc037…1814backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 19.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.