Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc66c28bd944c5007d32acef5c5d478521ee5c9775234c12176d24c8c6beb939
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 27c | 1,419$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.85 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 24c | 401.75$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.81 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…7f49backed Yes | 21c | 369.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 320.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 72c | 319.11$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 209.77$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…28d5backed No | 78c | 192.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 185.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 75c | 176.23$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 22c | 155.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 79c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 131.11$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed Yes | 18c | 125.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 19c | 119.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 15c | 115.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…e479backed Yes | 26c | 114.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 110.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 109$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 107.96$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 30c | 91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 89.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 74.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 20c | 70.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 66.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 65.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 75c | 65.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 74c | 62.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 73c | 62.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 28c | 61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 24c | 59.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 59.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 58.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 71c | 55.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 27c | 54.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 52.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed No | 76c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 51.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…7889backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 24c | 48.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 75c | 47.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4d…3375backed No | 79c | 46.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 29.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 26.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 76c | 26.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 75c | 23.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 76c | 23.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 19.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 78c | 17.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 78c | 13.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.