Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf78389415c350a5180f46130ea43875ed0545d1c7e6c58b68a7f0f4552a8779
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 48c | 1,295$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.68 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 65c | 1,117$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.01 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 75c | 1,050$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.52 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 4c | 933.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.4 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 3c | 905.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.3 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 52c | 895.35$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.06 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 17c | 419.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 398.47$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.59 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 7c | 386.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 357.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 10c | 342.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed No | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe329…4adbbacked No | 61c | 245.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 5c | 233.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.55 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 72c | 231.77$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 11c | 230$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 78c | 209.27$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 10c | 199.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.85 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 27c | 186.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…04a1backed Yes | 76c | 182.56$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 77c | 170.27$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 158$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 18c | 148.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 145.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 33c | 137.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 28c | 130.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 128.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 33c | 111.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 99.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.96 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 99.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 91.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 59.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eae…1916backed Yes | 60c | 50.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 29c | 48.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 54c | 46.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 42.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 48c | 31.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873f…ca06backed Yes | 60c | 30.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 39c | 30.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…3368backed Yes | 61c | 27.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 48c | 27.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 58c | 25.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…b884backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a56…3e1cbacked Yes | 64c | 18.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.