Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfdb08439c5f531397927d62796934f43a4383b158a320395216e991432d8709
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6fd6…200fbacked Yes | 28c | 334.9$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 22c | 293.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 220.27$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 9c | 208$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 164.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 162.76$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 39c | 127.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 102.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1a…2987backed No | 72c | 99.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 79.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 25c | 74.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 72c | 72.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 64.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 71c | 64.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 61.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 75c | 58.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 51.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 49.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 49.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 72c | 44.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 43.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 25c | 40.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 40.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 77c | 39.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked No | 76c | 36.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 35.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 35.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 34.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 30.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 29.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked No | 74c | 24.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 23.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 23.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 16.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 15.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or higher on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.