Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97583ab82109b18f44c5c23cecfca86120e28d64cf4e6920200c05041431b14b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 1,306$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 45c | 591.64$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.76 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 176.72$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 159.34$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 12c | 144.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 141.23$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 75c | 141.1$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 32c | 133.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.47 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 118.72$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 67c | 117.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked No | 65c | 110.38$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 31c | 103.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 41c | 94.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 64c | 93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5d…38eabacked Yes | 42c | 90.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 89.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1a…2987backed Yes | 50c | 82.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 59c | 79.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 79.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 76.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 75.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 74.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 73.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 30c | 65.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 54c | 61.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 61.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 60c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 44c | 54.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 48c | 53.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 51.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 78c | 51.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 40c | 50.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 49.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 53c | 45.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 59c | 43.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed Yes | 41c | 43.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 27c | 42.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 66c | 42.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 53c | 41.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…60ccbacked Yes | 49c | 41.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 54c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 38.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked No | 53c | 38.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 57c | 36.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 35.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 78c | 35.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 34.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 33.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 56c | 32.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 70c | 32.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 75c | 29.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 41c | 28.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 42c | 28.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 60c | 24.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 64c | 23.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 63c | 22.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 57c | 20.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 77c | 19.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 58c | 18.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or higher on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.