Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcffc8a788823a4064e6b67fb57c0e279676784c2c152e8885bf94d3a867e0316
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 342.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 44c | 337.19$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.8 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 22c | 262.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.64 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…434fbacked No | 70c | 213.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 178.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 9c | 170.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 166.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.56 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 163.95$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 7c | 149.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 30c | 148.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 148.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 143$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.01 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 49c | 141.12$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 129.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 34c | 119.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 24c | 91.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 91.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 71.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 68.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 72c | 67.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 75c | 67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 36c | 66.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 62.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 74c | 62.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 51c | 61.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 59.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 66c | 56.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 22c | 56.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 22c | 52.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 52.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 71c | 51.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 51.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 29c | 40.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 50c | 39.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 60c | 36.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 34.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 78c | 32.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 61c | 32.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 31.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 61c | 29.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 77c | 28.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 49c | 27.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 67c | 25.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 73c | 20.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 19.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 15.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 74c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da8…54afbacked Yes | 77c | 14.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…8d97backed Yes | 73c | 13.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.