Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd08eb3bbbc843e843a7c7a3dab965579cba0885ac4421fce3df339a9e4dbd3c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 521.76$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4812…d2d6backed No | 26c | 500.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 433.93$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 297.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 227.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 196$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 178.34$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.14 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 171.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 11c | 160.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 22c | 159.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 152$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…0f4dbacked Yes | 36c | 143.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.74 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 71c | 140.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 76c | 138.71$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 76c | 125.91$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 124.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 121.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 115.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 115.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 21c | 107.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 67c | 105.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 33c | 103.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 36c | 99.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 34c | 95.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 91.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…7a9bbacked Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 53c | 87.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 87.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 36c | 74.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…8dd8backed Yes | 35c | 71.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 67c | 69.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 67.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 66.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed No | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 65c | 54.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 58c | 53.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…7c21backed No | 67c | 53.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 73c | 52.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fda…1407backed Yes | 35c | 51.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 32c | 51.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 22c | 50.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 36c | 45.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 33c | 44.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…6369backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…6805backed Yes | 32c | 43.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 27c | 41.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed Yes | 56c | 41.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 28c | 39.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked Yes | 78c | 38.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…ddc0backed Yes | 68c | 36.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 32c | 36.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 66c | 36.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 78c | 33.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 39c | 31.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 30.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 51c | 29.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 67c | 28.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 72c | 25.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed Yes | 42c | 24.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 64c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 57c | 22.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 20.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 70c | 20.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 70c | 19.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 70c | 19.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 44°C or higher on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.