Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0913ead92f7451134cab0c7d0ebd77cc0ba7448018935cad78c6e62323557f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 0c | 16,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 61c | 1,292$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.25 | 434 | 37.8%164 W · 270 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 60c | 991.15$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.92 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 36c | 898.5$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.95 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 37c | 703.85$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.54 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde57…76a4backed Yes | 68c | 633.65$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.21 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 545.81$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 40c | 542.07$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.65 | 681 | 50.5%344 W · 337 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 48c | 530$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.81 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 46c | 510$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.48 | 1,300 | 54.2%704 W · 596 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 65c | 494.29$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.3 | 512 | 47.1%241 W · 271 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 62c | 461.2$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.6 | 1,489 | 24.6%366 W · 1,123 L | -34.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 57c | 405.45$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 402.27$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.53 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 60c | 400$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.53 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 388.53$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.68 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 44c | 386.11$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 40c | 351.47$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.66 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 36c | 340.38$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.87 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 60c | 330.41$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.8 | 1,464 | 58.5%857 W · 607 L | +71.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 48c | 319.14$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.68 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 42c | 309.95$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.28 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 301.63$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 274.22$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…3baabacked Yes | 53c | 262.9$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 50c | 251.22$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.64 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 25c | 227.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 47c | 209.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 48c | 204.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Yes | 49c | 203.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes | 42c | 199.17$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.61 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 178.45$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 167.81$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 165.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.91 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 31c | 152.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.58 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 33c | 150.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 694 | 35.3%245 W · 449 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,244 | 16.7%208 W · 1,036 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 34c | 149.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 1,114 | 35.1%391 W · 723 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 44c | 143.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 71c | 138.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 33c | 133.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.91 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 42c | 132.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 130.62$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 1,801 | 50.4%907 W · 894 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 120.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 70c | 113.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 40c | 112.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 105.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 2,655 | 47.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…ca37backed Yes | 55c | 100.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 65c | 100.27$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 208 | 31.3%65 W · 143 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…06f8backed Yes | 31c | 99.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 97.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 68c | 86.85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 31c | 86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 179 | 36.3%65 W · 114 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 39c | 82.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 62c | 82.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 463 | 56.4%261 W · 202 L | +54.6wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 48c | 80.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 1,908 | 55.6%1,060 W · 848 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 79.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 43c | 78.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 789 | 27.9%220 W · 569 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 50c | 76.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 58c | 76.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 68c | 75.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed Yes | 69c | 72.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 35c | 70.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed No | 71c | 70.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 209 | 38.3%80 W · 129 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08a5…1ee6backed Yes | 78c | 65.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 70c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaada…160bbacked Yes | 35c | 63.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 58c | 60.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 43c | 58.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 34c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 333 | 39.6%132 W · 201 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 34c | 55.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 37c | 55.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…eed8backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 59c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 60c | 54.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 31c | 51.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 31c | 51.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 35c | 50.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 989 | 38%376 W · 613 L | +80.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf2…18e5backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 793 | 63.4%503 W · 290 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 61c | 49.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 58c | 49.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 56c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 51°F or below on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.