TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Birmingham: Alex Bolt vs Arthur Fery

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arthur Feryof Alex Bolt, Arthur Fery
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$153,074
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$160,749

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,074 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x27b0…fc67backed Alex Bolt22c16,128$3,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,472.1331234.6%108 W · 204 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Arthur Fery71c4,897$3,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.398,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked Alex Bolt16c3,762$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.871,13145.4%514 W · 617 L-34.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Arthur Fery66c3,497$2,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.9811,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Arthur Fery71c3,276$2,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.744,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Arthur Fery66c2,373$1,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.66,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Arthur Fery72c2,186$1,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.759,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Arthur Fery72c2,116$1,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.295,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1bf…e36bbacked Alex Bolt27c1,852$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Arthur Fery69c1,749$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.731,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4340…363dbacked Arthur Fery73c1,625$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.6118445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Alex Bolt26c1,549$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.1211437.7%43 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74bd…d371backed Alex Bolt9c1,462$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.0742125.7%108 W · 313 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Alex Bolt36c1,228$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.082,32652.1%1,213 W · 1,113 L+85.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Arthur Fery51c1,177$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.681,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Arthur Fery49c1,164$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.653,31948.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L-52.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Arthur Fery65c1,152$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.244,60267.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L+309.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x56ce…590abacked Alex Bolt52c1,125$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.976041.7%25 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Arthur Fery77c1,000$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.679,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Alex Bolt49c999.99$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49085634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Alex Bolt40c970.35$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.493,71145.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Alex Bolt52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac3f…28d7backed Arthur Fery73c875.67$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.431776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+26.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cf5…31f9backed Alex Bolt45c759.01$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.125850%29 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Arthur Fery48c757.94$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.7357842.4%245 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Alex Bolt54c754.42$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.632,15054.1%1,164 W · 986 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2b8…b908backed Alex Bolt30c700$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Alex Bolt4c664$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6545737.9%173 W · 284 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked Arthur Fery51c633.06$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.8752557%299 W · 226 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Arthur Fery73c551.01$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8499244.7%443 W · 549 L-29.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Alex Bolt43c545.07$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.162,77653.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L+69.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Arthur Fery78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arthur Fery71c487.2$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.018,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Alex Bolt42c440.76$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.222,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2de6…fb10backed Alex Bolt55c423.64$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23346255.8%258 W · 204 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x287d…38febacked Alex Bolt29c420.14$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.8437421.9%82 W · 292 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Arthur Fery69c411.18$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.241,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alex Bolt37c409.23$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.887,96850.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L+92.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47b…c6b1backed Arthur Fery49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1619052.6%100 W · 90 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc376…6850backed Alex Bolt50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+61%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Alex Bolt50c392.16$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.131,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x191f…f09ebacked Alex Bolt52c373.92$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.4422345.7%102 W · 121 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ff…3214backed Alex Bolt16c372.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6838522.3%86 W · 299 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Arthur Fery56c356.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.871,05340.9%431 W · 622 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Arthur Fery68c348.53$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8585749.7%426 W · 431 L+22.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e93…79f3backed Alex Bolt52c346.5$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1821257.5%122 W · 90 L+0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Arthur Fery47c338.6$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.142,52138.4%969 W · 1,552 L+93.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Alex Bolt18c333.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6087837.2%327 W · 551 L-2.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Arthur Fery69c327.28$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.111,88257.4%1,081 W · 801 L+104.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3bd…6dddbacked Arthur Fery47c314.79$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.844047.5%19 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Alex Bolt27c287.67$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783,45738.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L-15.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Alex Bolt21c285.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.872,86849.5%1,419 W · 1,449 L+23.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Alex Bolt31c283.97$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.594,97538.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L-19.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Arthur Fery59c283.29$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.133,72642.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L-48.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc81…e889backed Alex Bolt49c276.8$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.6318142%76 W · 105 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e72…d0b9backed Alex Bolt20c275.98$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3570829.1%206 W · 502 L+0.6wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked Arthur Fery49c274.28$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.896541.5%27 W · 38 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Alex Bolt19c273.95$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.053,79854.9%2,087 W · 1,711 L+111.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Arthur Fery71c264.77$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.931,45950.1%731 W · 728 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a1e…f992backed Alex Bolt24c250$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6065434.9%228 W · 426 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc908…2f61backed Alex Bolt49c248.88$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.234148.8%20 W · 21 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Arthur Fery80c241.74$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3585348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Arthur Fery80c241.74$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3565952.5%346 W · 313 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x097c…630abacked Alex Bolt11c238$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521052.4%110 W · 100 L-12.1wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Alex Bolt26c237.36$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6230226.8%81 W · 221 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9971…b123backed Arthur Fery80c235.73$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Alex Bolt41c235.56$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5396035.4%340 W · 620 L-40.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Arthur Fery46c233.38$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.027,75347.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c5…17e8backed Alex Bolt50c221.39$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.939638.5%37 W · 59 L-0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Arthur Fery50c218.63$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.435567.3%37 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Arthur Fery72c218.61$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.1291755.5%509 W · 408 L+2.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Arthur Fery49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0825257.9%146 W · 106 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22c7…d814backed Arthur Fery49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0840554.1%219 W · 186 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Alex Bolt46c202.1$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9465250.3%328 W · 324 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Alex Bolt13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2645235.8%162 W · 290 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked Alex Bolt13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…9507backed Alex Bolt17c200$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334922.4%11 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Alex Bolt13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2648235.9%173 W · 309 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Alex Bolt13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2669438%264 W · 430 L+21.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Alex Bolt51c196.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10058145.8%266 W · 315 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b43…9e23backed Alex Bolt21c190.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4019531.3%61 W · 134 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Arthur Fery54c185.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.187,10739.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L-17.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26ca…da6abacked Arthur Fery76c176.71$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.418158%47 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Arthur Fery52c169.97$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6938947.3%184 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60a3…3850backed Alex Bolt27c165.84$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9785624.4%209 W · 647 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Arthur Fery50c163.84$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.923,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa10…065abacked Alex Bolt35c155$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8810447.1%49 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Arthur Fery72c152.53$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.856,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Arthur Fery72c144.24$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9438246.1%176 W · 206 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x561d…4134backed Alex Bolt21c142.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3044949.4%222 W · 227 L+23.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4c0…22ebbacked Alex Bolt8c135.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6840527.2%110 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed Arthur Fery74c133.78$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.781,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8649…ba57backed Alex Bolt47c128.03$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6079646%366 W · 430 L+1.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cbb…75a1backed Alex Bolt23c124.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2911338.9%44 W · 69 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Arthur Fery58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.479653%422 W · 374 L+25.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9888…e6febacked Alex Bolt28c118.19$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.692,44745.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23df…640abacked Arthur Fery74c114.46$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1648858%283 W · 205 L+24.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Arthur Fery74c109.46$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4633352.6%175 W · 158 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c22…0a8cbacked Alex Bolt46c109.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5046640.6%189 W · 277 L-36.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Alex Bolt23c109$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.344,65048.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L+31.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.