TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Seattle Sounders FC vs. Portland Timbers: 1st Half O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,078
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,349

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,078 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x47c5…46c3backed Over41c1,854$761 inLost-$7613528.6%10 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under54c1,022$552 inWon+$469.961,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3740…a935backed Under68c999.99$680 inWon+$320.484868.8%33 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over32c951.53$304 inLost-$304.491,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168c…f24bbacked Under53c945.29$500 inWon+$445.291850%9 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07ea…a6babacked Over45c660.04$300 inLost-$3002556%14 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over28c488.64$136 inLost-$136.0436247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under63c362.15$227 inWon+$134.661,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cf0…cad2backed Under52c192.31$100 inWon+$92.31540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Over38c162.06$61 inLost-$61.2219847.5%94 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under58c106.14$62 inWon+$44.323350.6%118 W · 115 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2064…0ab1backed Under47c97.87$46 inWon+$51.871741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over47c84.01$39 inLost-$39.4821547.9%103 W · 112 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Under53c84.01$45 inWon+$39.4811650.9%59 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under54c80$43 inWon+$36.81,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under60c66.88$40 inWon+$26.8746156.2%259 W · 202 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff5a…6cedbacked Under66c64.83$43 inWon+$22.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4156…997ebacked Under60c58.09$35 inWon+$22.981546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Over37c53.84$20 inLost-$19.864748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c8…142bbacked Under45c42.43$19 inWon+$23.435813.8%8 W · 50 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-22.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0da8…54afbacked Under46c42.07$19 inWon+$22.72450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+194.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe29c…a31dbacked Over42c38$16 inLost-$15.776149.2%30 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x186a…559dbacked Under56c35.71$20 inWon+$15.712955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Over49c30$15 inLost-$14.76653%35 W · 31 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5005…bcb1backed Under55c19$10 inWon+$8.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under59c16.95$10 inWon+$6.954163.4%26 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.