TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Portland Timbersof Portland Timbers, Seattle Sounders FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,761
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,826

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,761 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Portland Timbers33c4,698$1,542 inWon+$3,156.3698945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Seattle Sounders FC45c1,316$592 inLost-$591.8252639.5%208 W · 318 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b78…473dbacked Portland Timbers12c1,277$156 inWon+$1,120.5822269.4%154 W · 68 L+31.4wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+33.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x2735…42ebbacked Seattle Sounders FC79c1,152$910 inLost-$910.381145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.24per pick70cpaid-35.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Sounders FC60c851.71$513 inLost-$513.041,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x379f…7d70backed Seattle Sounders FC79c720$569 inLost-$568.8366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick78cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaeb…9ec2backed Seattle Sounders FC79c606.9$481 inLost-$481.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34ae…cdb5backed Seattle Sounders FC79c485.09$383 inLost-$383.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Sounders FC4c474.4$21 inLost-$20.851,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Seattle Sounders FC73c319.5$232 inLost-$232.21,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Seattle Sounders FC64c153.98$99 inLost-$98.6592346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Seattle Sounders FC68c149.31$101 inLost-$101.4319641.3%81 W · 115 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Portland Timbers37c140.55$51 inWon+$89.1219172.3%138 W · 53 L+36.8wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+41.7%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x03c9…d8c1backed Portland Timbers32c139.31$45 inWon+$94.732751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8649…ba57backed Portland Timbers47c122.17$58 inWon+$64.61837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Seattle Sounders FC14c119$17 inLost-$16.5630444.1%134 W · 170 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Sounders FC65c114.04$74 inLost-$73.7880249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Portland Timbers31c78$24 inWon+$53.92035%7 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Portland Timbers48c61.25$30 inWon+$31.722841.7%95 W · 133 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Portland Timbers27c60$16 inWon+$4435247.7%168 W · 184 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Portland Timbers32c50$16 inWon+$33.944447.3%210 W · 234 L-1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Portland Timbers37c50$19 inWon+$31.3231446.5%146 W · 168 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Seattle Sounders FC76c49$37 inLost-$37.1523350.6%118 W · 115 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Seattle Sounders FC68c40$27 inLost-$27.3728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Seattle Sounders FC69c25$17 inLost-$17.334748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe43b…044bbacked Seattle Sounders FC79c18$14 inLost-$14.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe906…db88backed Seattle Sounders FC80c12.5$10 inLost-$10450%2 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.