TailMyPicks
Market

Mls · resolved market

Seattle Sounders FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$135,196
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$140,987

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,196 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9ba8…cdb3backed Under53c55,287$29,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,4901662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+36.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under60c13,968$8,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,427.1498945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Over43c10,638$4,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,063.766939.1%27 W · 42 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over37c9,707$3,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,125.2599340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Over47c9,000$4,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,7704751.1%24 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b0…89d3backed Under61c4,485$2,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,740.281464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Under43c3,804$1,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.72825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-66.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over36c3,617$1,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,310.927058.9%159 W · 111 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Over46c3,600$1,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,94417258.1%100 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x443b…e8bbbacked Over45c2,998$1,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.744656.5%26 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over45c2,927$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,596.21,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under55c2,851$1,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,580.7432848.8%160 W · 168 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Over46c2,762$1,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.736250%31 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over47c2,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32570249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over47c2,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32572850.7%369 W · 359 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over42c2,121$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.381,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over41c2,088$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.051,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Over45c2,036$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.243234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-24.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0601080%8 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+62.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xea97…5ac0backed Under60c1,656$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+48.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Over46c1,508$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.4614359.4%85 W · 58 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over45c1,475$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.9233346.8%156 W · 177 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f9c…df69backed Over41c1,332$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.711040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Over46c1,304$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.332254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Over46c1,260$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.412661.1%77 W · 49 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Under54c1,235$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.677949.4%39 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6102…1913backed Over63c1,178$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.052360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Over47c1,080$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.415858.2%92 W · 66 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd93…56c0backed Over77c1,012$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.7818774.3%139 W · 48 L+33.5wins+0.18per pick56cpaid+39.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over33c999.99$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.996625.8%17 W · 49 L-8.1wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbbe5…2b7cbacked Under57c950.53$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Under66c929.58$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.936646.7%171 W · 195 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under4c821.9$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.587154.6%476 W · 395 L+34.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under55c820.8$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.681,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Over46c800$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4324751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over47c797$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.4155750.1%279 W · 278 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over47c797$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.4168550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over47c797$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.4191553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22ae…920bbacked Over47c791.07$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over36c720.91$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.473650%18 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under55c701.57$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.273,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked Under72c687.51$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.01757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a1…30d1backed Over35c686.07$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.981553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+42.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa42f…b629backed Over44c614.44$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.094062.5%25 W · 15 L+7.7wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+40.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over36c613.43$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.2771443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Over46c600$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3244748.9%23 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over29c584.67$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.0368150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Over46c547$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.3811055.5%61 W · 49 L-0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Under61c525.08$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.9335247.7%168 W · 184 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over31c524.45$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.695337.7%20 W · 33 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb00d…af5fbacked Over44c512.62$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.12580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+76.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over46c500$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2705464.8%35 W · 19 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+27.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3968…85b5backed Over32c474.88$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.853253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed Over44c460.43$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.843751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Under35c439.09$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.7119641.3%81 W · 115 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over46c380$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.213948.9%68 W · 71 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under68c360.17$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.9252639.5%208 W · 318 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Over46c360$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.414459.7%86 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Over47c360$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.816955.6%94 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Over46c360$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.416960.9%103 W · 66 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Over46c360$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.414257.7%82 W · 60 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over46c352$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.0812162%75 W · 46 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Over46c345$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.311759%69 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under37c336$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.7380249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over46c327.84$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.9631446.5%146 W · 168 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55e3…b615backed Under57c324.56$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185130%0 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under46c296.71$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.281,00946.2%466 W · 543 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Over73c292.46$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9622042.7%94 W · 126 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over47c288$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6415060%90 W · 60 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Over46c288$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.5213158.8%77 W · 54 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Over46c280$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+89.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Over46c280$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+137.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Over46c280$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+137.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Under63c257.39$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.595448.1%26 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over47c256$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.6827047%127 W · 143 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over46c255.16$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.31,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Under57c241.4$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5139435.8%141 W · 253 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Over76c239.66$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8623953.6%128 W · 111 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under53c236.49$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.692346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.276250%31 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Under53c225.58$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.563066.7%20 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over49c223$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.7444447.3%210 W · 234 L-1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf10a…d6c2backed Over45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.229940.4%40 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over74c220.36$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0336247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f39…e279backed Over62c219.78$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.42669.2%18 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+13.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Over46c217$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.1820043%86 W · 114 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6787…ff88backed Over48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.331330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-43.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over46c200$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10920449%100 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6b…c494backed Over43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Over47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1061181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick56cpaid+49%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over76c197.7$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.419070%63 W · 27 L+11.7wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8b89…9f72backed Under60c197$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.292479.2%19 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xafca…92b4backed Over48c196.71$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.292100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9714…5152backed Over46c189$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.062568%17 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcb8…067cbacked Over46c188.98$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Under43c181.06$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4420252%105 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Over46c180$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.215259.9%91 W · 61 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Over47c180$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.413461.2%82 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Over47c180$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.413560.7%82 W · 53 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Over46c144$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7614660.3%88 W · 58 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.