WNBA · resolved market
Spread: New York Liberty (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1b7ab28ea40d3f3ab3fedf1460c2048d95e01f1c1e7ec73577cdf76cc59b2a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Libertyof New York Liberty, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…f328backed New York Liberty | 52c | 7,776$4,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,725.97 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 7,329$3,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,798.24 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 5,474$2,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,671.2 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed New York Liberty | 48c | 5,042$2,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,618.93 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed New York Liberty | 49c | 4,980$2,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.84 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 2,371$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.36 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c03…95b9backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 2,368$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Liberty | 57c | 1,665$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.12 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 1,066$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.04 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed New York Liberty | 49c | 991.23$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.53 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed New York Liberty | 47c | 982.05$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.49 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 700$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d4…ad01backed New York Liberty | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 42c | 486.78$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.3 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed New York Liberty | 49c | 399.67$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.91 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 392.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.96 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed New York Liberty | 64c | 302.74$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.99 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Phoenix Mercury | 58c | 265.31$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.88 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x229b…331fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 34c | 241.49$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 208$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.83 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked New York Liberty | 63c | 189.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Phoenix Mercury | 62c | 165$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…fa9bbacked New York Liberty | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked New York Liberty | 47c | 137.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.05 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed New York Liberty | 47c | 129.01$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.77 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 124.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 108.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked New York Liberty | 65c | 103.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -11.1wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…0b46backed New York Liberty | 51c | 98.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Liberty | 61c | 87.71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked New York Liberty | 69c | 84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed New York Liberty | 65c | 69.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…9b09backed New York Liberty | 49c | 61.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Phoenix Mercury | 38c | 60.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc059…a1edbacked Phoenix Mercury | 67c | 53.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Liberty | 47c | 51.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…3961backed New York Liberty | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 24.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 21.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Liberty (-4.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. New York LibertyNew York Liberty won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 169.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 171.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 172.5Under won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5)New York Liberty won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-6.5)New York Liberty won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.