WNBA · resolved market
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 169.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98f8a6cf70582c0ba090ba469af2f6b45560e6ad19f663c8c096e4bc71b2705c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5af4…a7dfbacked Over | 53c | 66,301$34,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,823.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 47c | 39,004$18,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,672.23 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 9,643$4,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,073.45 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 5,053$2,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,678.35 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 4,531$2,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,379.02 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under | 49c | 3,061$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.22 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 49c | 3,000$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 47c | 2,517$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.02 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 42c | 2,074$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.49 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 55c | 2,008$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.57 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under | 47c | 1,676$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.09 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 1,614$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.66 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Under | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.49 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.31 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 60c | 822.55$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.48 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…3f6abacked Under | 52c | 794.98$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.59 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 793.67$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.96 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Under | 44c | 600$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 58c | 543.34$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.14 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 57c | 526.4$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…a165backed Over | 60c | 500.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 59c | 498.99$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.94 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 49c | 471.47$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.56 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 47c | 380$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.4 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 38c | 349.67$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.56 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 4c | 334.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 63c | 264.15$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.25 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -11.1wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Over | 69c | 247.83$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 47c | 239.96$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.98 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked Over | 64c | 226.6$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.02 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Under | 47c | 140.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 39c | 127.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 51c | 117$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 47c | 106.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…0b46backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…764bbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 55c | 98.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…7c43backed Under | 52c | 96.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 59c | 94.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Under | 31c | 86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 47c | 74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 49c | 56.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Over | 54c | 54.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 48c | 41.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Under | 47c | 39.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Over | 53c | 35.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26a8…8a98backed Under | 47c | 31.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3353backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 42c | 27.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 64 | 1.6%1 W · 63 L | -26.1wins | -0.41per pick | 42cpaid | -97.6%equal weight | 17-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 42c | 25.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…aadebacked Over | 52c | 25.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 62c | 23.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908b…e1a6backed Over | 50c | 23.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 50c | 23.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 57c | 20.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 169.5this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. New York LibertyNew York Liberty won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 171.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 172.5Under won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-4.5)New York Liberty won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5)New York Liberty won
- Spread: New York Liberty (-6.5)New York Liberty won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.