TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
New York Libertyof New York Liberty, Phoenix Mercury
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,950
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,995

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,950 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd218…b5c9backed Phoenix Mercury34c8,268$2,821 inLost-$2,820.5834726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked New York Liberty65c8,039$5,225 inWon+$2,813.9514450.7%73 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed New York Liberty48c2,994$1,437 inWon+$1,556.9410151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury54c2,036$1,098 inLost-$1,098.481,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Phoenix Mercury52c1,943$1,010 inLost-$1,010.3636154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed New York Liberty46c1,071$493 inWon+$578.493839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Liberty44c1,066$464 inWon+$601.11,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Phoenix Mercury52c1,020$530 inLost-$530.2314452.8%76 W · 68 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x476d…0c42backed New York Liberty45c835.4$376 inWon+$459.474669.6%32 W · 14 L+10.7wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+44.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Phoenix Mercury62c627.13$389 inLost-$388.8210144.6%45 W · 56 L-13.5wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-25%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Phoenix Mercury65c208$134 inLost-$134.410249%50 W · 52 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Phoenix Mercury44c205.06$90 inLost-$90.1920947.4%99 W · 110 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Phoenix Mercury57c200$114 inLost-$11413249.2%65 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked New York Liberty51c186$95 inWon+$91.114936.9%55 W · 94 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Phoenix Mercury54c184.8$100 inLost-$1005853.4%31 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x656e…b45abacked Phoenix Mercury51c122$62 inLost-$62.22560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Phoenix Mercury48c86.46$42 inLost-$41.6918844.1%83 W · 105 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed New York Liberty49c81$40 inWon+$41.1610349.5%51 W · 52 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked New York Liberty38c64.12$24 inWon+$40.0441147%193 W · 218 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed New York Liberty46c63.2$29 inWon+$34.1389349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Phoenix Mercury62c61.39$38 inLost-$38.062948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Liberty40c50$20 inWon+$29.8215346.4%71 W · 82 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1980…3340backed Phoenix Mercury63c42.14$26 inLost-$26.392853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Phoenix Mercury51c37.76$19 inLost-$19.1522748.5%110 W · 117 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed New York Liberty38c33.87$13 inWon+$217050%35 W · 35 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed New York Liberty45c32.99$15 inWon+$18.144667.4%31 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x31a0…5911backed Phoenix Mercury52c31.85$16 inLost-$16.452119%4 W · 17 L-6.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-64.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Phoenix Mercury36c31.1$11 inLost-$11.0713143.5%57 W · 74 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Liberty41c30.08$12 inWon+$17.6832150.2%161 W · 160 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd030…f3f0backed New York Liberty48c27$13 inWon+$14.041163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Phoenix Mercury63c25.59$16 inLost-$16.126749.3%33 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed New York Liberty48c24.98$12 inWon+$12.9961547%289 W · 326 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Phoenix Mercury52c24.17$13 inLost-$12.5723245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x698c…ddc8backed New York Liberty59c20.4$12 inWon+$8.45100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Phoenix Mercury66c19.92$13 inLost-$13.136640.9%27 W · 39 L-8.4wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-29.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Phoenix Mercury55c19$10 inLost-$10.4542649.3%210 W · 216 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.