MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd249a28be779342fff8c8b776791615961e2a2ed8aa7bdae3b1a1c52da659c49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 56c | 20,000$11,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,200 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 13,353$5,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,477.68 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked Over | 47c | 11,789$5,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,248.42 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 6,061$3,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,212.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 2,168$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.88 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 56c | 1,374$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.44 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 49c | 1,068$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.68 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 53c | 934.3$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.18 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 901$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.39 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 46c | 881.15$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.22 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 53c | 792$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.76 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 44c | 780$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.8 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Under | 51c | 517.08$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.71 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 54c | 456.13$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.31 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 410.93$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.68 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 376.43$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.27 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 337.17$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.94 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 47c | 321$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.53 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 48c | 312$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.6 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 45c | 281.64$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.1 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 272.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.06 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 46c | 236.2$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 44c | 219.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.11 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Over | 46c | 196.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.19 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 48c | 180$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 46c | 136.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 55c | 119$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 118$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…8d7dbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 51c | 102.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 46c | 93.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 78c | 82.23$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 48c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 45c | 68.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 46c | 63.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 44c | 55.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 49c | 48.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 51c | 48.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 49c | 48.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 41.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Over | 44c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…4e60backed Over | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Over | 50c | 22.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 54c | 21.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 14.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.