Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2546584faffa5501b77b2585c15de54b2c291e0dc238203ff0b499b42b0edc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 17c | 588.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 346$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 288.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 29c | 218.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 58c | 214.44$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.86 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 40c | 213.71$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 29c | 210.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 189$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 181.24$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 168.18$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 21c | 166.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 157.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 156.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 54c | 148.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 46c | 130$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 127$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 29c | 103.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 13c | 103$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 28c | 102.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 29c | 101.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 44c | 94.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 75c | 92.89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 13c | 90.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 90.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 42c | 89.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 54c | 88.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 87.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 84.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 28c | 82.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 74c | 78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 69.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 49c | 66.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…afe1backed Yes | 61c | 65.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 58c | 60.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 47c | 54.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 72c | 53.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 72c | 50.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 30c | 49.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 75c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 74c | 44.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 42.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 39.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 39.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 60c | 36.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 33c | 35.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 31c | 34.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 59c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 32c | 32.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 57c | 32.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 57c | 31.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 48c | 30.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 30.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…28d4backed No | 61c | 29.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 28.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 70c | 28.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 37c | 28.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 73c | 26.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d08…9232backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 58c | 24.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…3cc3backed No | 72c | 22.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 21.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd736…ba5dbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…441fbacked No | 70c | 19.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 78c | 14.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 77c | 13.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 75c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.