TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,052
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,434

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,052 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes17c588.12$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.473,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No79c346$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.115,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes25c288.31$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2141…7fa2backed Yes29c218.08$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6418219.2%35 W · 147 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5556…d729backed Yes58c214.44$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.867650%38 W · 38 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes40c213.71$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2223540.9%96 W · 139 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes29c210.28$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.553,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No74c189$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.214,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No66c181.24$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.384,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No64c168.18$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.724,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes21c166.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2856424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes35c157.24$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes37c156.34$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.45,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes54c148.13$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8988028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7515…0d06backed No46c130$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.24161%25 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes41c127$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.086,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes29c103.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3029536.9%109 W · 186 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes13c103$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0772125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes28c102.35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.537417.4%65 W · 309 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34d5…a977backed Yes29c101.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.923030.9%71 W · 159 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a1…1d37backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0332041.9%134 W · 186 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.868732.2%28 W · 59 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed No44c94.88$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9843139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84e3…3dfdbacked No75c92.89$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5914878.4%116 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes13c90.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.822,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes13c90.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.721,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1cc…6171backed Yes42c89.66$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6937942.5%161 W · 218 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Yes54c88.55$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.614738.3%18 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes24c87.14$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No50c85$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.242,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes30c84.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1487437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7eb…da58backed Yes28c82.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.747846.2%36 W · 42 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeca…e166backed No74c78$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.27156.3%40 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No73c73$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.533,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No70c69.75$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.753,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes49c66.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8715940.3%64 W · 95 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a6b…afe1backed Yes61c65.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402065%13 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb8c…23c8backed No58c60.56$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.747762.3%48 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes47c54.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5699961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1dc…4f72backed No72c53.17$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9724164.7%156 W · 85 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No72c50.14$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1668867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Yes30c49.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9416126.1%42 W · 119 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-1.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8839…ddb5backed No75c47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5821865.6%143 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21fb…842cbacked Yes53c45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.684934.7%17 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed No74c44.21$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4321264.6%137 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No72c42.01$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.852,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No77c39.98$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.394,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No67c39.04$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.752,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes60c36.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.029147.3%43 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes33c35.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.562,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes31c34.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.652,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No59c33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3927461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes32c32.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.671,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No57c32.12$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6698160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…dd86backed No57c31.27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.578564.7%55 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes48c30.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.582,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No74c30.38$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.899,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.722232%71 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c29.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4414…28d4backed No61c29.32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.41752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes44c28.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.581,27534%433 W · 842 L+46.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadd7…8622backed No70c28.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4817766.7%118 W · 59 L-0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes37c28.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3452828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No79c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.991,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No73c26.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2535264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d08…9232backed Yes47c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.842045%9 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No63c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.151,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked No58c24.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2140461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x152f…3cc3backed No72c22.26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.174057.5%23 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No72c21.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.962,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3438655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd736…ba5dbacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.511070%7 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6396…7183backed Yes54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810827.8%30 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7f23…441fbacked No70c19.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.871540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+41.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No75c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2542160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No73c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.051,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No72c14.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.132,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No78c14.31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.161,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No70c14.3$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2994066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89f1…52e4backed No77c13.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.055271.2%37 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No75c13.45$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.443559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.