Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b307d9ab0722360493f40cc9bd779950e290bdc58ed1303dc37ef10658b6d75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 583.97$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.34 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 389.42$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.93 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 369.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 57c | 332.32$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.36 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 54c | 321.46$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.36 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 303.24$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 68c | 247.19$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 50c | 242.55$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.38 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 35c | 234.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 64c | 206.06$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.85 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 202$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked No | 69c | 184.68$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.67 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 178.71$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 30c | 164.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Yes | 55c | 157.37$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 25c | 149.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 66c | 148.59$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 59c | 141.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.15 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 140.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 60c | 138.77$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.63 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…1fafbacked No | 74c | 137.9$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 24c | 136.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 135.78$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 133.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.33 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 125$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 124$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 55c | 123.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 49c | 122.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 79c | 121$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 54c | 107.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…441fbacked No | 29c | 99.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…28d4backed Yes | 52c | 96.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 54c | 92.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 66c | 91.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…da82backed No | 61c | 81.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 59c | 80.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 42c | 77.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 49c | 75.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 41c | 74.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 63c | 74.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 33c | 69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 41c | 68.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 66.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 67c | 66.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 30c | 66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 67c | 63.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 77c | 63.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…7ffebacked Yes | 64c | 62.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0515…f02bbacked No | 67c | 62.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 59.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 34c | 59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 54.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes | 55c | 54.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 51c | 50.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 38c | 47.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 31c | 47.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 28c | 45.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 31c | 44.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 50c | 43.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 40.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 38c | 39.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 39.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 40c | 37.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 30c | 37.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 30c | 35.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 53c | 34.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 71c | 34.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c70…f74dbacked Yes | 43c | 33.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…afe1backed Yes | 49c | 32.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…d5d9backed No | 55c | 32.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…dc18backed Yes | 36c | 31.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0b…dff7backed Yes | 79c | 30.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 67c | 29.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x063e…3ac1backed Yes | 47c | 29.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8694…7dafbacked No | 45c | 29.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 28.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 69c | 28.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 61c | 27.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 52c | 26.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 60c | 26.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 56c | 26.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 58c | 26.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb280…daefbacked No | 65c | 26.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 51c | 21.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 49c | 20.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 57c | 19.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 66c | 19.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1441…0b51backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.