Fifa International · resolved market
Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2565c49beb5075ad8e939bf9ad44799e651e8d8715b97604e8a30f49a878292
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 30c | 2,157$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 30c | 1,800$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.99 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Under | 71c | 1,247$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.59 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 28c | 1,056$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.63 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 79c | 982.96$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.81 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 70c | 353.78$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.16 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 12c | 299.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 72c | 228.36$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…bb24backed Over | 27c | 216$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 22c | 168.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 72c | 156.43$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7b…eac6backed Under | 76c | 131.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 174 | 59.8%104 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Under | 66c | 113.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 311 | 56.6%176 W · 135 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 26c | 109.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 203 | 30.5%62 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 27c | 108.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 237 | 32.1%76 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8006…94dcbacked Over | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 64c | 105$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e7…d4ccbacked Under | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Under | 78c | 62.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 224 | 66.1%148 W · 76 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 27c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 156 | 55.1%86 W · 70 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 71c | 49.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 72c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 26c | 41.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 356 | 58.7%209 W · 147 L | +35.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9808…5cfdbacked Under | 74c | 37.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Under | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 160 | 40.6%65 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 71c | 30.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Under | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,151 | 58.5%673 W · 478 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…65bbbacked Under | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 72c | 14.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5this page
- Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5Over won
- Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5Under won
- Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5Under won
- Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5Under won
- Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Qatar (-1.5)Republic of Ireland won
- Spread: Republic of Ireland (-1.5)Qatar won
- Spread: Republic of Ireland (-2.5)Qatar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.