WNBA · resolved market
Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd28a970ec6b33f71efdd45fb0e4bd71f2adb1b2e1865dc832d214fba784a5aee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Under | 54c | 9,343$5,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,088.14 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 6,172$2,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,309.11 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc594…773fbacked Over | 47c | 3,401$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,801.19 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 51c | 3,150$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.41 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 45c | 1,495$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.13 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 46c | 1,237$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.98 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 51c | 760.29$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.94 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 34c | 356.78$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.79 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Over | 77c | 161$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 140.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 49c | 129.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 129.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Over | 69c | 120.14$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Under | 53c | 103.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 32c | 103.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 53c | 99.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 52c | 99.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 47c | 93.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 92.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Over | 47c | 80.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 53c | 70.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4011…4a39backed Under | 51c | 68.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 62.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 32c | 60.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Over | 47c | 56.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Over | 74c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 49c | 41.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 252 | 46%116 W · 136 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Under | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Under | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Under | 33c | 39.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Under | 33c | 32.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 65c | 31.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 27.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 65c | 24.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…f69dbacked Over | 65c | 24.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c0…11dabacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5this page
- Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix MercuryIndiana Fever won
- Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 174.5Over won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.