WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54a512cef49af8fcc3b4026b7de470ec63ffaf4402073dc2f8962f6011559475
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Phoenix Mercury, Indiana Fever
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 2,419$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.11 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…96c8backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 2,255$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 1,609$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.7 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 1,594$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.01 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Indiana Fever | 55c | 1,025$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.25 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 959.38$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.72 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever | 52c | 730.16$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.57 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Indiana Fever | 56c | 678.95$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.74 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…3ba1backed Indiana Fever | 40c | 603.74$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.74 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe8…2cbabacked Indiana Fever | 51c | 526$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.74 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 502.11$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.11 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 399.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Phoenix Mercury | 37c | 352.8$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.45 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 253.64$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.41 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…fb89backed Indiana Fever | 44c | 223.24$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.58 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 222$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.64 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 217.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 204.18$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.13 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Indiana Fever | 49c | 204.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.13 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Indiana Fever | 51c | 198.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.14 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 189.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 188.28$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.26 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Indiana Fever | 58c | 169.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 134.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 133.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 132$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…31e6backed Indiana Fever | 55c | 123.72$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Indiana Fever | 53c | 95.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Indiana Fever | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 84.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 252 | 46%116 W · 136 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8b…cc69backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 59.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 57.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 57.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ef…b630backed Phoenix Mercury | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Phoenix Mercury | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a6…c03bbacked Indiana Fever | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 46.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 41.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Phoenix Mercury | 58c | 34.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Indiana Fever | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Phoenix Mercury | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Indiana Fever | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 25.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Phoenix Mercury | 74c | 17.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5)this page
- Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix MercuryIndiana Fever won
- Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 174.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.