Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd29d7210cd3fa5ccef6b2bbcfc6b7c650dba6cf45b4b2f6c36d201bf9377e49f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 1,333$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.72 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 962.49$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 51c | 897.58$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.63 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 44c | 781.95$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 38c | 695.43$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.3 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 538.17$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 47c | 533.31$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.31 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 53c | 512.13$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.01 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 435.05$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.53 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 59c | 310.33$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.33 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 294.3$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.24 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 36c | 277.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…07fdbacked Yes | 57c | 260$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 42c | 248.2$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 47c | 245.39$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 236.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 200.33$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 52c | 173.71$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 52c | 163.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 156.45$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 45c | 150.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 53c | 150.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 145$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.61 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 42c | 143$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 140$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 53c | 130.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 76c | 129.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 127.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 109.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 47c | 106.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 48c | 104.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 48c | 103.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 102.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…43cfbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 51c | 98.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 15c | 97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 33c | 96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 43c | 93.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 91.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 79.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 40c | 75.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…0aa2backed Yes | 69c | 72.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 55c | 67.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 52c | 67.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 47c | 67.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 45c | 63.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 53c | 62.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 52c | 57.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 29c | 55.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 43c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 42c | 47.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 24c | 46.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 51c | 41.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…5910backed No | 59c | 36.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 43c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 65c | 34.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 53c | 33.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 48c | 32.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 49c | 31.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35d…5289backed Yes | 42c | 29.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 48c | 29.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…6108backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 55c | 24.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…2a5fbacked No | 59c | 23.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 47c | 22.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.7wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -57%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…83ccbacked No | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 77c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5d…38eabacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…3e99backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 59c | 18.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…5cf0backed Yes | 61c | 18.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 15.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.