Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x190ed2cb6668c1f31b722b6edb24d93c5984d326e8a6314b561082f6df852041
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 2,234$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.46 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 33c | 1,208$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 77c | 499.73$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.93 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 18c | 462.18$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 449.41$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 407.03$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 387.7$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 39c | 351.75$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.54 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 336.98$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 10c | 225$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 182.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 28c | 182$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 180.75$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 170$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 163.72$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 155$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 67c | 148.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 78c | 132.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 129.38$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 129.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 126.36$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 122.34$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 70c | 114.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 34c | 113.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 65c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 105.68$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 39c | 99.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 99.07$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 92.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 79.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 70.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 19c | 69.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 63c | 65.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 74c | 63.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 38c | 54.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 39c | 54.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 50.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 50.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 47.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 45.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 45.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 24c | 45.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 40.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 39.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 65c | 39.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 33c | 35.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 31.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 64c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5296…39cdbacked No | 70c | 30.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 76c | 30.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa953…da6dbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 75c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 25.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 24.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 68c | 21.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 61c | 21.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 68c | 20.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 61c | 20.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 19.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…8b3bbacked No | 69c | 17.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked No | 72c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 61c | 17.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 67c | 16.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.