World Politics · resolved market
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win 22 or more seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2a8b00f3b7fdd31ae5237a82ad646b37b23ae7788bdfdd4d8a7d39f0801a84e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 8c | 1,033$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 976.69$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.93 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee34…02d1backed Yes | 68c | 802.28$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 4c | 691.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1613backed Yes | 65c | 604.41$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 6c | 434.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 389.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…b15bbacked No | 6c | 324.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 4c | 263.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 34c | 236.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 31c | 148.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.83 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 50c | 99.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 71.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 58c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 26c | 42.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6242…71b9backed Yes | 44c | 36.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x697b…d152backed Yes | 77c | 30.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 23.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 68c | 18.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win 22 or more seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?this page
- Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 13 and 15 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?No won
- Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 16 and 18 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?No won
- Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 19 and 21 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?No won
- Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win fewer than 10 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.