Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2c3a922fedd988650ad4470cfff8daa15301df9854b909f1d758ba1370869e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mentality Monsterof Mentality Monster, Ivory
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1056…3c9dbacked Ivory | 33c | 534.19$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ivory | 19c | 502.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked Ivory | 61c | 432.62$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.71 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Ivory | 3c | 428$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2b…825ebacked Ivory | 51c | 392$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 106 | 37.7%40 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Mentality Monster | 71c | 315.98$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.26 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Ivory | 33c | 300.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3783…171dbacked Mentality Monster | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa896…4819backed Ivory | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Mentality Monster | 67c | 290.71$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.73 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Mentality Monster | 71c | 267$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.13 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Mentality Monster | 51c | 241.53$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.35 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Mentality Monster | 73c | 233.51$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Mentality Monster | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ivory | 17c | 181.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ivory | 27c | 170.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Ivory | 16c | 145.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0a…f994backed Mentality Monster | 76c | 131.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Ivory | 33c | 131.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ivory | 32c | 129.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Ivory | 47c | 127.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Mentality Monster | 72c | 125.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed Mentality Monster | 59c | 101.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Mentality Monster | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Ivory | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Ivory | 25c | 87.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Mentality Monster | 60c | 86.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 137 | 64.2%88 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…4f6dbacked Mentality Monster | 61c | 85.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…24fabacked Mentality Monster | 54c | 84.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ivory | 52c | 81.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Mentality Monster | 67c | 81.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Ivory | 34c | 75.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Mentality Monster | 67c | 72.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Ivory | 41c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Ivory | 17c | 71.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Mentality Monster | 65c | 69.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…1909backed Ivory | 39c | 68.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d33…28f8backed Ivory | 37c | 65.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…8c4dbacked Ivory | 32c | 61.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Mentality Monster | 74c | 49.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Mentality Monster | 49c | 45.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Ivory | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Ivory | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b3…d0eebacked Ivory | 30c | 33.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…ae1dbacked Mentality Monster | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Ivory | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed Mentality Monster | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…2184backed Ivory | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…b1bfbacked Mentality Monster | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…cfb9backed Mentality Monster | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203a…bd06backed Mentality Monster | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Mentality Monster | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Mentality Monster | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory - Game 1 WinnerMentality Monster won
- Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory - Game 2 WinnerMentality Monster won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.