TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-12-03?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,157
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,720

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,157 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No17c7,452$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.468,11248.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L+27.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes43c7,079$3,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,060.2219239.1%75 W · 117 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No47c4,964$2,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,323.81,98544.8%890 W · 1,095 L-44.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No18c2,334$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.7463644.7%284 W · 352 L-2.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked No57c1,600$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.221963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No15c1,385$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.65,76245.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L+94.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes77c1,299$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.713134.4%45 W · 86 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked No25c1,253$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.4933251.8%172 W · 160 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No37c1,251$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.832,38851.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L-9.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No25c1,130$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.121,42851.8%740 W · 688 L+22.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7c8…e4f7backed Yes41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e8f…6b61backed No11c724.15$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8811738.5%45 W · 72 L-0.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Yes67c557.95$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.975952.5%31 W · 28 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x426a…128bbacked No6c513.89$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.852445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d0a…0809backed No12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505129.4%15 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes77c376$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.8332936.5%120 W · 209 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Yes42c337.9$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.983050%15 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+45.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26be…d699backed No16c307.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.571442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf825…c866backed Yes42c267.96$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b6…922fbacked Yes40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+111.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.13324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No59c234$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.0681740.8%333 W · 484 L+20.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed No22c217.08$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.65437%20 W · 34 L-10.4wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-46%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xcd96…479dbacked Yes68c204.18$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.341968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+28.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed No59c194.16$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5512562.4%78 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde22…292abacked Yes77c177.1$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.733100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+124.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked No59c164.12$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.381651.6%421 W · 395 L+12.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x38f8…95c0backed Yes76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.58450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e10…70f4backed No59c126.84$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8411959.7%71 W · 48 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb7f…d5bdbacked No19c120.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.15650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No57c98.51$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1526659.8%159 W · 107 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes42c96.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3614446.5%67 W · 77 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba49…a4a1backed Yes42c95.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.242544%11 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+19.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc65…49d8backed No24c94.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.641533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ac3…2ab9backed Yes41c90$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.32147.6%10 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xef41…2473backed Yes44c82.59$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.259240.2%37 W · 55 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff47…d10cbacked Yes43c81.4$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1272…92e9backed No15c75.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes44c68.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1815158.3%88 W · 63 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d8…b6aebacked Yes45c60.43$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.23540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b60…5593backed Yes69c57.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.97988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.24per pick65cpaid+34.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a05…0329backed No57c57.62$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.84757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No59c50.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.579361.3%57 W · 36 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe074…629bbacked Yes73c44.93$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb4…d481backed No62c40.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e0…a433backed Yes44c34.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0910826.9%29 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes42c28.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.571266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes65c22.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7337355.2%206 W · 167 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6d3…432abacked No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.82871.4%20 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea5e…0c89backed No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c80…9564backed Yes69c18.32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.68757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.