South American Leagues · resolved market
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-12-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd31eb6f48cf35b7152627213ce51e9dd1a91959a3be29ce4ad76ed09fdcdbff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 17c | 7,452$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.46 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 43c | 7,079$3,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,060.22 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 47c | 4,964$2,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,323.8 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 18c | 2,334$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.74 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 57c | 1,600$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.22 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 15c | 1,385$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.6 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 25c | 1,253$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.49 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 37c | 1,251$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.83 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 25c | 1,130$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.12 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…e4f7backed Yes | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 11c | 724.15$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 67c | 557.95$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.97 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 6c | 513.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed No | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 77c | 376$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.83 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 42c | 337.9$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.98 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed No | 16c | 307.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…c866backed Yes | 42c | 267.96$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b6…922fbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 59c | 234$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.06 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed No | 22c | 217.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -10.4wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -46%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…479dbacked Yes | 68c | 204.18$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 59c | 194.16$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde22…292abacked Yes | 77c | 177.1$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 59c | 164.12$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f8…95c0backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 59c | 126.84$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7f…d5bdbacked No | 19c | 120.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 57c | 98.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 42c | 96.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…49d8backed No | 24c | 94.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…2ab9backed Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 44c | 82.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff47…d10cbacked Yes | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1272…92e9backed No | 15c | 75.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…b6aebacked Yes | 45c | 60.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b60…5593backed Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed No | 57c | 57.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 59c | 50.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe074…629bbacked Yes | 73c | 44.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed No | 62c | 40.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 108 | 26.9%29 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 65c | 22.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…432abacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…0c89backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 69c | 18.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-12-03?this page
- Will CA Mineiro vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-12-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.