AI · resolved market
Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd357984e8f297cddb0d877592b1ae67455c7f624a6123a98d636bdc76149ff5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 3,427$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…d0e9backed Yes | 12c | 582.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe18…f646backed Yes | 22c | 366.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 341.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 311.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 417 | 7.4%31 W · 386 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 55c | 309.62$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.62 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 18c | 304.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 34c | 218.63$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.4 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 38c | 214.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…4069backed No | 49c | 196.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 8c | 195$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 126 | 33.3%42 W · 84 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed No | 55c | 174$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…d809backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 22c | 157.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 128$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 736 | 35.6%262 W · 474 L | -58.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 57c | 121$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed6…cbb4backed No | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…4c31backed Yes | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 51c | 110$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 899 | 17%153 W · 746 L | -146.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…5b6bbacked No | 70c | 101.54$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac23…46ebbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 12c | 94.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…ed9ebacked Yes | 49c | 78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…ac11backed No | 53c | 77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 24c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…51b4backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 23c | 56.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 35c | 54.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…621ebacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 51c | 48.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 372 | 44.9%167 W · 205 L | +28.8wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…f535backed Yes | 54c | 44.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 39.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 43c | 30.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab5…5379backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 40c | 28.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 48c | 25.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…ca8abacked No | 78c | 20.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ac0fbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 73cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.