Movies · resolved market
Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd375627767677b9c5916d81311f6882edafd52460f203e23965dd4b23331e3b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 14c | 845$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.86 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 15c | 817.16$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.83 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 13c | 675.05$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.33 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 9c | 491.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 16c | 374.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed No | 5c | 301.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 16c | 208.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 10c | 207.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 15c | 185.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 12c | 176$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked No | 14c | 170$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed No | 11c | 135$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 10c | 134.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked No | 10c | 121$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb598…14fcbacked No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.