Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3776550404c2d454334d1619a8ec5e6d488b90ea2aab21a91d6c560cbb7c0a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 1,238$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.75 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 39c | 342.14$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.14 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 235.94$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.44 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 216.56$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.27 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 40c | 205.28$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.03 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 186.37$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 184.71$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 178$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 161.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 42c | 144.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 143.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 136.07$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 41c | 127.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 57c | 122.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 109.15$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 43c | 107.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 107.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 95.38$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 92.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 90.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 87.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 12c | 87.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 43c | 83.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 83.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 80.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7993…3b27backed No | 55c | 79.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 76.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 73.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 45c | 57.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 61c | 55.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 39c | 55.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 57c | 52.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed No | 65c | 48.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 57c | 45.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x259f…3294backed Yes | 41c | 43.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 66c | 43.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d7…9f0cbacked No | 62c | 41.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 36.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 38c | 34.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 32.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 68c | 29.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdff…205cbacked No | 72c | 27.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 27.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 52c | 25.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…b302backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked No | 68c | 24.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a1…a26bbacked No | 61c | 24.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 57c | 24.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 23.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 20.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb5…3d4fbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 18.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 72c | 17.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 75c | 16.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 14.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.