MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd382862823ae6f3b7a799dfc796d4481e0edf9b897585a67fff897263a45b8cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 2,756$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.82 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 1,545$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.94 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Seattle Mariners | 80c | 1,294$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.54 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 21c | 1,268$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Seattle Mariners | 23c | 973.88$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.4 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Seattle Mariners | 80c | 769.23$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.38 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 609.47$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.71 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 572.22$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.44 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Seattle Mariners | 29c | 517.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 511.75$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.67 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 314.3$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.3 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 309.32$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 237.17$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Seattle Mariners | 65c | 230.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 140$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Cincinnati Reds | 77c | 128.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Seattle Mariners | 79c | 122.39$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 120.61$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 120$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 106.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 102.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 102.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Cincinnati Reds | 70c | 96.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 87.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…0650backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…bd24backed Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 70.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Seattle Mariners | 28c | 62.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 61.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Seattle Mariners | 31c | 60.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Seattle Mariners | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 51.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 50.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 39.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Seattle Mariners | 77c | 37.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 32.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fc…ecf9backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 32.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 32.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 31.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 31.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cincinnati Reds | 80c | 30.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 29.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 25.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 24.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 22.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Seattle Mariners | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 18.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle MarinersCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.