Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C or higher on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3a746dca7d72f04f76a97670c519a2b8d842eb7ea2bdaec99fb011d7d2284bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,221 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 5c | 899.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 7c | 425.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed No | 34c | 359.35$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 14c | 317.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4958…16a4backed No | 21c | 238.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 77c | 230.81$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 11c | 203.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 13c | 197.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 196.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 15c | 191.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 14c | 182.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 68c | 148.95$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 9c | 147.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 76c | 145.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 9c | 145.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99c…177abacked No | 18c | 138.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked No | 11c | 131.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 27c | 128$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 117.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x17c0…503abacked No | 15c | 116.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 11c | 100.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 19c | 93.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed Yes | 73c | 91.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked No | 14c | 84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 22c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 27c | 60.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 23c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 18c | 58.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 25c | 42.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed Yes | 79c | 28.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C or higher on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.