TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,648
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,952

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,648 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes29c661.36$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.571,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No71c562.59$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.468,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes26c407.18$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9428441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e9…02babacked Yes31c299.97$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.963534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes27c287.68$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4211438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed01…89b7backed Yes27c266.02$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.37552%39 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e9…0208backed Yes38c264.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.418947.2%42 W · 47 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…2061backed Yes15c258.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes14c232.9$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.453611.1%4 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-56.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c219.74$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.59,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No72c217.82$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.973,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06d6…44bcbacked Yes13c208.42$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.843135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No72c207.9$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.65,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes26c200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2710434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff67…a1c9backed Yes14c199.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes26c192.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7848919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes27c191.69$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.341,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes30c187.39$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6956627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c41…500dbacked Yes29c186.8$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.017627.6%21 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes13c186.76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.282,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No76c174.64$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.975,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes35c145.01$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No69c144.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8632872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed Yes11c141.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.099233.7%31 W · 61 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+37.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes26c140$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.669744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No73c139.94$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6797570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes25c136.22$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.327,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No74c133.97$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.992,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No75c133.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0442160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No75c132.65$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6898571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No74c130.38$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0571649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x378d…a852backed Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No68c124.33$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.751,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes26c123.42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.414,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes30c120$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3634918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No70c119.94$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.281,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No70c117.78$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No76c116.9$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.271,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309548.4%46 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No71c111.4$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.311,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes41c109.21$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5942820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c105.23$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.115,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed Yes28c102.85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7122350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes24c101.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4312351.2%63 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes26c101.3$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7887437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4142547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4354234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.515345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes30c99.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe775…01d2backed Yes11c92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.129646.9%45 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No77c91.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.444,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No75c89.66$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.264,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes21c85.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.285,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes29c85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4517831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes16c83.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.072,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No75c83.55$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9298565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes28c79.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.883,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes33c77.92$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6516724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b3…9bc4backed Yes33c77.55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.811650%8 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes25c73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5262137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a0…4134backed Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014823%34 W · 114 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2124732%79 W · 168 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06a3…fa45backed Yes15c65.65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015660.9%95 W · 61 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7da0…ca1ebacked Yes31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2299…493bbacked Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x017c…f8efbacked Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187642.1%32 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed Yes28c59.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6519947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No73c55.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1468867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed Yes32c50.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2215246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7faa…c757backed Yes27c50.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.745248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No76c50.62$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.151,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.536150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.535344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1414…866abacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.56243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed Yes32c49.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9821950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes29c48.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0823941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes38c46.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6515868.4%108 W · 50 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x558e…ec99backed No74c46.34$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.281250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes23c46.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.751,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes33c46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1845253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No75c45.19$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.251,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c44.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.129,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No71c43.96$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.721,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes25c43.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8167336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x997a…4cbebacked Yes29c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.419565.6%128 W · 67 L-0.8wins0.00per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No67c39.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3416550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5500…b4f6backed No66c39.52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4417536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No75c39$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.752,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3811…736cbacked No69c38.55$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.951020%2 W · 8 L-4.4wins-0.44per pick64cpaid-71.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No71c30.56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7743848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd6e…8115backed No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.43161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c29.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x658e…2914backed No75c29$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.172955.2%16 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.571,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No69c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7551568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf29e…1352backed No64c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.441668.8%11 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid+1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No76c23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5227669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b8a…74b1backed No75c22.76$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.761163.6%7 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid+12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.