Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3d8d89e9b74c79668b939ebde751370075408dd51570e99af9e9be07ebd5f34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 65c | 1,236$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.02 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 730.1$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.84 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 467.15$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 395.81$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.28 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 351.59$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 35c | 226.05$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 41c | 219.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.53 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 217.15$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1826…c31ebacked Yes | 47c | 211.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 54c | 182.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 33c | 180.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 68c | 177.14$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 156.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 145.74$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 61c | 142.79$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 54c | 137.25$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 120.73$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 70c | 101.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 99.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 98.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 97.79$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 46c | 92.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 91.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 25c | 91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 66c | 87.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 87.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 84.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 83.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…f0a1backed Yes | 28c | 77.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba76…b233backed Yes | 54c | 74.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 28c | 71.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 71c | 69.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 58c | 69.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 23c | 67.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…123abacked Yes | 35c | 63.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked No | 72c | 62.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed Yes | 55c | 60.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 35c | 59.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 69c | 57.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 57.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 79c | 57.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 43c | 56.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 24c | 54.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed No | 76c | 52.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…6bcbbacked Yes | 28c | 49.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 48.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 45.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 44.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 40c | 43.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked No | 71c | 39.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 64c | 37.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 35.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 31c | 35.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 33.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 36c | 33.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 32.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 36c | 32.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 63c | 32.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 61c | 30.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 63c | 27.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 27.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…ab15backed No | 71c | 26.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9297…358bbacked No | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd79f…c113backed Yes | 67c | 23.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 72c | 19.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9896…e187backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 63c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 16.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.