Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa152882ce9421417fabe672f4831ffd6bab799a078b1b2fc272e818d47c6e730
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 52c | 1,323$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.11 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 37c | 1,238$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.16 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 49c | 978.58$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.93 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 47c | 656.51$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.56 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 43c | 576.35$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.13 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked No | 17c | 505.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 464.03$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.61 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 52c | 462.72$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.72 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 452.08$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.19 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 37c | 327.39$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.79 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 76c | 278.1$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 5c | 259.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 56c | 244.55$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.85 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 205.06$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 204.46$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 49c | 174.85$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 21c | 154.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 149.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 43c | 148.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 72c | 132.33$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1826…c31ebacked Yes | 44c | 129.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 51c | 123.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed Yes | 74c | 116.85$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 46c | 115$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 55c | 113.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 47c | 113.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 50c | 105.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 38c | 98.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 64c | 95.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed No | 47c | 87.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 60c | 83.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 83.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 71c | 78.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 51c | 75.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 34c | 67.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 51c | 67.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 66.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…1df6backed No | 15c | 66.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 71c | 63.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 59.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 53c | 56.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 43c | 52.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 51.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 39c | 49.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…981cbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 45c | 43.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 43.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 50c | 41.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 72c | 40.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 54c | 40.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 54c | 39.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 50c | 38.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 50c | 38.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 53c | 38.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 79c | 37.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 37.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 41c | 36.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…2eaabacked No | 76c | 36.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 54c | 35.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…673fbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 47c | 32.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…9ec2backed Yes | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 50c | 30.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…9599backed Yes | 68c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 55c | 28.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 53c | 27.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 42c | 26.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…123abacked Yes | 58c | 25.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 71c | 24.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ab…d374backed Yes | 54c | 24.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 22.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebb…14c7backed No | 46c | 22.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 49c | 22.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2a…040ebacked No | 78c | 21.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +493.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba76…b233backed Yes | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 70c | 16.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.