MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3fc4035838f8c33f0ee44b21a82c6a9cf113eb8d90e04a7c3d2dee7f2741856
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 51c | 43,604$22,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,364.81 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Over | 49c | 15,364$7,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,528.53 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 49c | 6,828$3,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,345.83 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 6,193$3,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,029.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 4,540$2,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,224.5 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 49c | 3,688$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.2 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…28eabacked Over | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 974.01$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 49c | 794.59$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.35 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 48c | 769.57$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.09 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 49c | 714$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.86 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Under | 52c | 646.15$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 611.4$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…dd71backed Over | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Over | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 12c | 267.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 48c | 205$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 26c | 190.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…e828backed Under | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 17c | 146$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 36c | 144$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dec…c92dbacked Over | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 104 | 59.6%62 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 48c | 142.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.57 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Over | 49c | 137.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 136$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 49c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 31c | 112.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 52c | 102.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 102.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 21c | 94.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 49c | 89.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Over | 48c | 82.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Over | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 26c | 74.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 74.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 33c | 61.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 49c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 41c | 25.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f5…97b2backed Under | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…7b57backed Over | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.