TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, New York Mets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$300,067
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$295,985

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $300,067 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xefdd…017fbacked Atlanta Braves48c48,450$23,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,193.857755.8%43 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves76c41,999$31,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,160.5110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37d3…709abacked New York Mets8c29,505$2,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,230.358220.7%17 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed New York Mets52c19,231$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00098149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked New York Mets52c19,231$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00061351.5%316 W · 297 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked New York Mets51c17,530$8,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,940.2477053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Atlanta Braves49c15,367$7,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,837.172,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed New York Mets52c14,071$7,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,316.891,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Atlanta Braves49c12,500$6,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,374.9444851.6%231 W · 217 L+0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets28c11,054$3,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,056.1512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked New York Mets6c10,805$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.285726.3%15 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick32cpaid+221.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked New York Mets49c10,600$5,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,19430647.4%145 W · 161 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Atlanta Braves74c8,328$6,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,168.146357.1%36 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed New York Mets52c7,777$4,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,044.0447953.2%255 W · 224 L+18.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves70c7,682$5,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,289.888,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed New York Mets28c7,402$2,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,059.8195045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Atlanta Braves48c5,417$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,816.6789153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked New York Mets52c5,001$2,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,600.521,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked New York Mets51c4,305$2,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,195.551,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed New York Mets26c3,989$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.9431958.6%187 W · 132 L+27.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Atlanta Braves48c2,626$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.641,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbf11…c679backed New York Mets52c2,326$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20028944.3%128 W · 161 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e70…582fbacked New York Mets18c2,197$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001520%3 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed New York Mets49c2,010$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.241,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves71c1,704$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.38,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b74…0482backed New York Mets31c1,682$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.8852228%146 W · 376 L-57.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-38.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed New York Mets50c1,681$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.211,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed New York Mets50c1,487$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.7392046%423 W · 497 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Atlanta Braves49c1,350$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.82,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets51c1,305$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.376,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x468a…c764backed Atlanta Braves77c1,275$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.752060%12 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24a1…32f2backed New York Mets29c1,202$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.5320745.9%95 W · 112 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed New York Mets51c1,068$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.6892054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9905…add3backed Atlanta Braves49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.4110351.5%53 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves62c1,015$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.459,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets51c999.98$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.991,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed New York Mets46c974.01$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Atlanta Braves79c968.84$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.211,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…67fdbacked Atlanta Braves48c898.83$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.3937748.8%184 W · 193 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked New York Mets45c887.75$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40011652.6%61 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed New York Mets47c881.51$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.252,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Atlanta Braves51c842.41$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.7460043.3%260 W · 340 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Atlanta Braves48c839.99$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.82,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked New York Mets51c802.96$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.5169453.6%372 W · 322 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed New York Mets11c783.43$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1897050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x07e2…4b9cbacked New York Mets10c756.75$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9527450.7%139 W · 135 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc313…e128backed New York Mets32c753.74$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24037941.2%156 W · 223 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Atlanta Braves49c734.69$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.6994549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed Atlanta Braves49c714.29$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.2912852.3%67 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed New York Mets52c692.31$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36018649.5%92 W · 94 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Atlanta Braves48c689.99$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.3970744.7%316 W · 391 L-22.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Atlanta Braves75c633.24$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.554,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed New York Mets52c595.76$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.792,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed New York Mets11c594.64$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4179255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Atlanta Braves51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.2447545.9%218 W · 257 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets29c584.8$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.175,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked New York Mets52c574.04$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.548147%226 W · 255 L-31.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets28c555.94$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.33,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Atlanta Braves48c549.95$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.981,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed New York Mets48c527$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.964,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets24c522.17$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.448,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb71e…641abacked New York Mets44c520$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.814142.6%60 W · 81 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20e5…118dbacked New York Mets52c500$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.1751449.2%253 W · 261 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5101…96e9backed New York Mets19c486.93$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.67683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+49.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Atlanta Braves74c455.56$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4571850.1%360 W · 358 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Atlanta Braves73c445.36$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.571,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets24c444.66$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed New York Mets11c442.73$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.71,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd2…7f1dbacked New York Mets10c437.17$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0616948.5%82 W · 87 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Atlanta Braves76c423.25$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1985148.5%413 W · 438 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Atlanta Braves48c420$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.448354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdeff…78f8backed Atlanta Braves63c405$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed New York Mets22c404$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0140043%172 W · 228 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed New York Mets14c403.22$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4354715.9%87 W · 460 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-44.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f8d…a92abacked Atlanta Braves49c400$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20423754%128 W · 109 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked New York Mets52c385.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022153.4%118 W · 103 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets50c375.02$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.515,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb5…d57abacked New York Mets49c372.51$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9621644.9%97 W · 119 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked New York Mets31c370.78$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.971,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked New York Mets48c347.54$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.8219546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x186a…559dbacked New York Mets52c346.15$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18014457.6%83 W · 61 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed New York Mets49c336.66$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9677951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked New York Mets15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5081257.3%465 W · 347 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Atlanta Braves43c330$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.134045%153 W · 187 L+1.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Atlanta Braves74c328.49$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3190446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed New York Mets44c314$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.163342.4%14 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Atlanta Braves47c309.99$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.291,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Atlanta Braves49c303.06$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.5637052.2%193 W · 177 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Atlanta Braves48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1561,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa689…15fcbacked New York Mets50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15024346.9%114 W · 129 L-1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa24…a75cbacked Atlanta Braves51c294.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.128757.5%50 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Atlanta Braves51c280.09$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.576747.8%32 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed New York Mets19c266.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.122,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x104f…04aabacked New York Mets26c259.78$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.411632.8%38 W · 78 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked Atlanta Braves49c255.1$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.130529.8%91 W · 214 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed New York Mets22c249.8$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555538.2%21 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed New York Mets49c247.25$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.996,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked New York Mets49c244.98$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.1543560%261 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked New York Mets27c230$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.31,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed New York Mets50c220$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11044348.5%215 W · 228 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.