TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,095
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,509

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,095 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes74c851.69$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.615570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes33c705.63$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.38,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No68c573.19$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.962,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No56c494.17$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.214,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No45c351.95$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.864,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No67c332.66$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.4419737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes24c328.79$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.453,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c291.69$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.711729.4%5 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes37c274.88$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.7516733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes30c267.08$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.952,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes67c243.79$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.076,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes34c241.1$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.5754735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No77c240$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.7411436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes42c217.19$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.035937.3%22 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c193.36$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No73c166.54$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.014,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9b…8f0cbacked Yes23c166.24$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+110.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes42c165.68$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.6995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7790…427abacked Yes52c163.21$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.091127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed Yes28c150$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.8114744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed No78c150$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11716552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No76c120$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.923,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3ca…d665backed No79c118.01$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.692564%16 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No68c115.79$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.831,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No11c111.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.234,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No66c109.18$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.554,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No42c108.68$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2739956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e87…e5f1backed Yes28c108.66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.66933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes33c103.59$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.538421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e50…11cdbacked Yes63c101.42$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.731384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+48.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No76c101$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.434,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes48c100.26$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6354154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No18c100.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.562,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.681848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No74c99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.875,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No70c98.08$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.751,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes26c91.68$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.986835.3%24 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No64c89.96$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.441,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No60c87.02$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4579947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No57c83$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.72,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No69c81.72$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.760054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No60c80.17$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4471057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes37c80.15$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8427246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed Yes23c75$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.757129.6%21 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+82.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No66c74.71$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.423,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a9…0a1abacked Yes58c74.2$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.091353.8%7 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick70cpaid-24.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5eda…d453backed No55c72.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.231643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c33…f910backed Yes28c71.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.722646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No48c71.53$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2827079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed No78c70.73$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1717433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No69c68$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.654,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbe…4f51backed No53c68$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.069150.5%46 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2c1…b127backed No65c67.9$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2317020%34 W · 136 L-21.0wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-50.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes39c67.21$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.293432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No74c65.04$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.282,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes23c63.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5115630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed No68c62.69$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.714945.6%68 W · 81 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes25c61.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.493,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa4…4d69backed No65c61.54$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401250%6 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x938a…a87abacked Yes42c61.38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9210…70a4backed Yes34c58.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.733429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed No66c58.7$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4523146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c54.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.425,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes42c54.41$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6610447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes35c50.71$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.711,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes23c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.562,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae5…7c01backed Yes40c49.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.53850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No65c48.32$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.383,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes23c47.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7312927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No76c44.82$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.072,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes35c42.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2865934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32e0…3884backed Yes36c41.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7211025.5%28 W · 82 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes26c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.722744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No55c39.82$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0256322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf75…005cbacked No67c38.52$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.624755.3%26 W · 21 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick68cpaid-23.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes31c38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.151,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4937…fbd0backed No70c36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.21450%7 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe199…321dbacked Yes41c35.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.23250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No52c35.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.63,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes35c34.16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.22,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes47c33.62$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.81,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes32c32$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.766758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed No66c30.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023560%141 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No71c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.186,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9009…1621backed No62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.619663.3%124 W · 72 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No75c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.42,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf444…8d4abacked No66c29.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.664971.4%35 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick72cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x804b…b090backed No66c29.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5618365.6%120 W · 63 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No74c29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.333,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No68c28.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.737,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked No74c28.66$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.140461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes41c28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6377151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No66c26.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4515669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf103…0421backed No77c25.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6e6…40aebacked No60c23.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.227540%30 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5c…cda7backed Yes52c23.54$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.381471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+78.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x42c7…c415backed No69c23.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.952259.1%13 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick69cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.