Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4094f48a03807d8649119a6ee1449bdbef97307f5766b1800981c0c836976e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 74c | 851.69$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.6 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 705.63$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.3 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 573.19$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.96 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 494.17$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.21 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 351.95$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 67c | 332.66$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.44 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 328.79$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.45 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 291.69$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 37c | 274.88$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.75 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 267.08$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.95 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 243.79$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 34c | 241.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.57 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 77c | 240$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.74 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 42c | 217.19$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.03 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 193.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 166.54$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…8f0cbacked Yes | 23c | 166.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 42c | 165.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7790…427abacked Yes | 52c | 163.21$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.81 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 120$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ca…d665backed No | 79c | 118.01$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 115.79$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 111.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 109.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 42c | 108.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…e5f1backed Yes | 28c | 108.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 33c | 103.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…11cdbacked Yes | 63c | 101.42$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 101$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 48c | 100.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 18c | 100.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 98.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 26c | 91.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 89.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 60c | 87.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 57c | 83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 69c | 81.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 60c | 80.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 37c | 80.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 74.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…0a1abacked Yes | 58c | 74.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 55c | 72.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c33…f910backed Yes | 28c | 71.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 48c | 71.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 78c | 70.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 53c | 68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 65c | 67.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes | 39c | 67.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 74c | 65.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 23c | 63.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 68c | 62.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 25c | 61.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa4…4d69backed No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938a…a87abacked Yes | 42c | 61.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…70a4backed Yes | 34c | 58.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 66c | 58.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 54.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 42c | 54.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 50.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae5…7c01backed Yes | 40c | 49.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 48.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 23c | 47.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 44.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 35c | 42.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 36c | 41.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 55c | 39.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 67c | 38.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4937…fbd0backed No | 70c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe199…321dbacked Yes | 41c | 35.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 35.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 34.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 47c | 33.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 66c | 30.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 66c | 29.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 66c | 29.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 28.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 74c | 28.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 41c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 66c | 26.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf103…0421backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked No | 60c | 23.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5c…cda7backed Yes | 52c | 23.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed No | 69c | 23.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C or below on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.