Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5775e62819a9a120352b663b111fc6892134b90a174e7584492d3a2c8e68fcef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 1,882$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 20c | 1,560$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.02 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 24c | 599.83$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 20c | 480.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.83 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 430.65$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 365.27$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 329.76$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 24c | 327.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.42 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 24c | 322.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 20c | 254.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 237.25$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 74c | 231.55$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 29c | 222.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 209.82$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 11c | 208.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…23debacked No | 74c | 202.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 20c | 185.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 184.14$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…adc5backed No | 73c | 171.45$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 74c | 169.34$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 34c | 165.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 79c | 165$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 12c | 147.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 30c | 144$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 140.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…add8backed No | 73c | 137.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…e5f1backed Yes | 23c | 128.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 125$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 77c | 109.66$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 28c | 103.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 80c | 86.19$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…6357backed Yes | 26c | 80.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 26c | 80.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 79.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 26c | 70.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 31c | 65.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 26c | 57.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 52.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 44.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 42.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 28c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 38.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 30c | 36.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 28c | 35.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 30c | 35.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…4dbfbacked No | 75c | 32.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c28…66b0backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 74c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 79c | 26.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 26.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 70c | 25.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 78c | 25.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 75c | 23.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 75c | 21.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 73c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 18.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed No | 73c | 16.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 78c | 15.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…0a1abacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C or below on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.