Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d6dbdf2bfa14843216210d0e6afed47936469e9bbc46e3fab058367127614aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4089…714bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,830$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 1,041$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 32c | 1,014$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.51 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 38c | 662.45$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 567.93$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.7 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 489.12$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 415.22$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.83 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 51c | 403.35$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.25 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 377.27$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 38c | 376$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.19 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 70c | 372.38$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.51 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 65c | 368.11$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.84 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 71c | 352.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 350$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 41c | 330$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.41 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 43c | 309.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.99 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 276.95$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 53c | 243.76$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.89 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 50c | 238.84$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 237.18$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes | 30c | 228.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 46c | 225.43$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.72 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 220$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 216.81$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 206$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 73c | 205.43$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 61c | 196.49$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 36c | 194.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 192.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 38c | 167.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 42c | 166.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 70c | 163.94$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 152.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 151.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 39c | 149$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 55c | 145.04$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 68c | 137.42$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 136$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 56c | 127.87$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 44c | 120.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 64c | 120.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 52c | 120.42$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 62c | 120.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 60c | 117.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 39c | 117.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 110$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7790…427abacked Yes | 56c | 109.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 109.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 105.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 52c | 105.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 72c | 104$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 40c | 103.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 40c | 100.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 99.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…001ebacked No | 53c | 96.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 42c | 95.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 42c | 94.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 59c | 89.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 55c | 87.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 41c | 82.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 58c | 82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 62c | 81.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 52c | 81.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 63c | 79.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked No | 41c | 77.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 42c | 77.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 56c | 73.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 65c | 73.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 42c | 72.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 59c | 71.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…0a1abacked Yes | 62c | 65.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 33c | 64.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…41c6backed Yes | 52c | 60.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 64c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…70a4backed Yes | 34c | 59.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…9208backed No | 62c | 57.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 38c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 65c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938a…a87abacked Yes | 69c | 52.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 69c | 51.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 68c | 51.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 51.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 58c | 51.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 59c | 51.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 63c | 51.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 49.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 49.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ee23backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C or below on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.