TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,794
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,930

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,794 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4089…714bbacked Yes0c11,830$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.851010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes31c1,041$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.1510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes32c1,014$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.5116724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes38c662.45$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No60c567.93$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.72,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No49c489.12$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.023,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No64c415.22$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.832,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes51c403.35$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2516733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c377.27$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.635,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes38c376$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No70c372.38$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.5119737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd881…40cdbacked No65c368.11$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.847251.4%37 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe241…5b42backed No71c352.11$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.118756.3%49 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No68c350$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1124,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes41c330$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.4125135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No43c309.99$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.9949543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No47c276.95$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.74,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes53c243.76$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8911436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes50c238.84$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.5254154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c237.18$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.6512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes30c228.4$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691729.4%5 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes46c225.43$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7239427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes9c220$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.173,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No63c216.81$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.724,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No62c206$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.14,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf3…369dbacked No73c205.43$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.823959%23 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7818629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b49…2e46backed No61c196.49$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.635267.3%35 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes36c194.64$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes25c192.06$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.826,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes38c167.59$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9670148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes42c166.81$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.084431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No70c163.94$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6154853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes23c152.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.838,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes36c151.89$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.844,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes39c149$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1115040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No55c145.04$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.633,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked No68c137.42$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.918041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No61c136$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.323,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes56c127.87$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.954017.5%7 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed Yes44c120.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2329443.5%128 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7861…3084backed Yes64c120.72$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6815270.4%107 W · 45 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No52c120.42$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.611,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf143…4ef2backed No62c120.37$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.744766%31 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No61c120$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.853,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No60c117.79$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.82,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No39c117.53$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4557044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No56c110$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.24,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7790…427abacked Yes56c109.82$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No71c109.21$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.734,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes53c105.66$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.012,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes52c105.33$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.898421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…9288backed No72c104$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1217262.2%107 W · 65 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0b…0020backed Yes40c103.03$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3638930.3%118 W · 271 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed Yes40c100.85$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8414744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4229732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4242547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No57c99.98$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.992,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dec…001ebacked No53c96.25$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.035058%29 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes42c95.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9811927.7%33 W · 86 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes42c94.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8923129.4%68 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes41c90$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.556835.3%24 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No59c89.96$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.591,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No55c87.83$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9460054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes41c82.97$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0254253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No58c82$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1715966.7%106 W · 53 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No62c81.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0723666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No52c81.49$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7471057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No63c79.23$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3215669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x304f…7d3cbacked No41c77.9$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.794748.9%23 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes42c77.36$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4981558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No66c74$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.535,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No56c73.28$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9579947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No65c73.05$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5646824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No42c72.17$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5483459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes59c71.32$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8827047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a9…0a1abacked Yes62c65.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.31353.8%7 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick70cpaid-24.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes33c64.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4765934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254228.6%12 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8ba…41c6backed Yes52c60.48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.32540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.627246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.73,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.151,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb777…a722backed No64c59.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.87852.6%41 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9210…70a4backed Yes34c59.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.253429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98e3…9208backed No62c57.32$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.782347.8%11 W · 12 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick66cpaid-27.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No38c55$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.21,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x914d…dd11backed Yes65c55$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8110246.1%47 W · 55 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x938a…a87abacked Yes69c52.52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68af…2639backed Yes69c51.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.999048.9%44 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No68c51.6$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6139956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes46c51.56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.83,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc295…c520backed Yes58c51.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304463.6%28 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c1…b127backed Yes59c51.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4917020%34 W · 136 L-21.0wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-50.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes63c51.24$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1854143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.519541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No60c49.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.932,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No75c49.2$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.397152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a50…ee23backed Yes41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201520%3 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.