Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4224e0b052998bdd9110c70165bb389ea9ac846638a122c3d9c8b78d535019e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 1,626$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 70c | 1,094$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.14 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 3c | 1,057$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4674…03cabacked Yes | 77c | 1,036$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.16 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 47c | 790.44$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.07 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 2c | 699.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 51c | 629.64$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.28 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 3c | 621.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed No | 5c | 364.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 334.83$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 302.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 49c | 277.91$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.53 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed No | 56c | 273.12$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.57 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 19c | 263.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.35 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 253.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.03 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 43c | 249.85$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.69 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…acaabacked No | 69c | 239.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 30c | 239.69$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.38 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed No | 80c | 237.42$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.38 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050a…9a4abacked No | 70c | 206.04$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.14 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ce…48eebacked No | 73c | 202.09$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 193.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.73 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 6c | 182.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 26c | 157.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.49 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 157.17$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8e…20fabacked Yes | 26c | 155.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes | 56c | 140.03$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 31c | 130.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 30c | 128.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.13 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 119.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…84dcbacked Yes | 24c | 114.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…66a5backed Yes | 20c | 110.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.79 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 27c | 101.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 32c | 100.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 20c | 99.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.31 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 26c | 98.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc138…c2e2backed No | 78c | 98.41$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 27c | 95.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 27c | 94.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 50c | 94.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 25c | 92.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked No | 57c | 89.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed Yes | 43c | 87.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed No | 32c | 82.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf2…fa7bbacked Yes | 71c | 79.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked Yes | 76c | 73.66$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 24c | 71.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 25c | 71.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 47c | 70.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 32c | 65.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…52a2backed Yes | 29c | 64.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 30c | 62.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…6182backed Yes | 31c | 60.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 53c | 60.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 28c | 59.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 27c | 55.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 30c | 55.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4850…ab3bbacked Yes | 26c | 54.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 69c | 52.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 45c | 52.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa3…b6cfbacked Yes | 28c | 49.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 47.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 61c | 47.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 78c | 44.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed No | 23c | 44.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 65c | 44.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d99…62a8backed No | 73c | 43.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 50c | 43.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 68c | 42.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…91cdbacked Yes | 29c | 37.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed No | 69c | 36.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 70c | 34.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 32.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 64c | 31.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 80c | 29.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 38c | 27.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…c67cbacked Yes | 68c | 25.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdf…97edbacked Yes | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5294…53c9backed No | 78c | 24.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 74cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fb…a1c0backed No | 80c | 24.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 76cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 74c | 22.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0c…3c22backed No | 77c | 20.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 71c | 20.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 67c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…c767backed No | 64c | 19.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 77c | 18.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…5e9fbacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 59c | 17.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 69c | 16.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…d65abacked No | 76c | 14.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.