Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1abbd6306fd2618bfa1b454c5334440819a5afd37a82d01feafddf4a5455672e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 38c | 2,953$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.93 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked No | 26c | 2,574$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,904.66 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 40c | 2,308$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.47 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 17c | 1,650$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.53 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…96cabacked Yes | 53c | 1,341$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 36c | 877.14$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.9 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed Yes | 33c | 741.57$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.05 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 589.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed Yes | 20c | 551.93$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.15 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 4c | 551.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 28c | 499.25$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.23 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes | 62c | 435.38$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.31 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 5c | 434.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.52 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 12c | 411.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 4c | 386.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 365.74$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 23c | 341.12$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 313.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 28c | 297.81$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.01 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 56c | 296.1$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.62 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 22c | 294.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 24c | 274.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 30c | 240.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Yes | 29c | 235.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…fd91backed Yes | 27c | 231.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…f30bbacked Yes | 79c | 229.96$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.05 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5198…4964backed Yes | 25c | 227.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 5c | 222.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 218.73$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 16c | 191.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Yes | 29c | 186.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…6f9dbacked Yes | 55c | 185.58$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 10c | 183.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 23c | 178.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Yes | 32c | 164.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x536c…1c05backed No | 49c | 163.43$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.79 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 59c | 156.48$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 77c | 151.67$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 18c | 142.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 77c | 140.19$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 15c | 137$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 50c | 135.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 53c | 129.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 31c | 128.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 35c | 128.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 51c | 127.84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 37c | 126.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 14c | 116.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 48c | 115.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…84dcbacked Yes | 19c | 102.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798c…88d5backed No | 54c | 96.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927e…fc97backed Yes | 34c | 83.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 41c | 79.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672c…6942backed Yes | 32c | 78.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…0b6dbacked Yes | 22c | 77.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…2827backed No | 65c | 74.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 50c | 73.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 43c | 73.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…64c9backed No | 39c | 71.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…a12cbacked Yes | 46c | 69.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6f…a9d9backed Yes | 77c | 68.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…cefebacked Yes | 33c | 64.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 57c | 59.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 77c | 58.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked No | 49c | 53.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e8…38b0backed No | 79c | 51.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 28c | 50.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 39c | 47.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked No | 55c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf2…fa7bbacked No | 72c | 44.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Yes | 31c | 43.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 42c | 43.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…e1bcbacked No | 47c | 40.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 72c | 37.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked Yes | 74c | 32.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf8…8634backed Yes | 32c | 32.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 47c | 31.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…a952backed Yes | 64c | 30.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ca…be89backed Yes | 46c | 29.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdec…1d55backed Yes | 75c | 27.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 67c | 27.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 72c | 26.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…872abacked No | 79c | 24.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed No | 65c | 24.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…5fedbacked Yes | 67c | 24.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked No | 76c | 23.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 63c | 22.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…6182backed Yes | 72c | 21.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed No | 76c | 20.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 52c | 19.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 62c | 19.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.